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RBC Upgrades BP Forecasts Amid Higher Refining Margins

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RBC Capital Markets revised its earnings forecasts for BP (BP.L), citing increased refining margins and expectations of continued strength into 2027 amid persistent volatility in oil markets.

The research firm on Friday raised its EPS estimates for the oil and gas major for 2026 through 2028, following a session with BP Chief Financial Officer Kate Thomson as part of RBC's Global Energy & Mining Back-to-School Series.

"We update our estimates today to reflect higher refining margins and enduring strength into 2027, which drives our 3Q and 2026-27E materially higher. If we were to mark-to-market for the upstream and downstream, our 3Q net income estimate would be ~$6.5bn (consensus $4.3bn)," analysts wrote.

During the event, Thomson also said she expects the company to achieve structural cost savings of $5.8 billion by 2027-end, partly due to recent asset sales. This exceeds BP's initial $4 billion to $5 billion target.

The outperform-rated stock has a price target of 7 pounds sterling.

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