The Canadian Labour Force Survey (LFS) for April will be released on Friday and it will be the week's macroeconomic focus, said RBC.
The bank expects employment to remain broadly consistent with a gradual improvement in per-worker conditions after controlling for an unprecedented pullback in labor force growth.
RBC predicts about 25,000 jobs were added in April, following losses in January and February that only partially recovered in March.
That would still leave employment down 70,000 in the first four months of 2026, but would also likely still be enough to push the unemployment rate down to 6.6% from 6.7% -- further below the recent 7.1% peak in August and September 2025, stated the bank.
Aggressive federal immigration caps and an aging population have sharply lowered the amount of employment growth needed to push the unemployment rate -- the better indicator of per-worker labor conditions -- lower, pointed out RBC.
The labor market isn't yet strong, with the unemployment rate declines still being "modest" to date and the bank doesn't estimate a spike in wages in March to be repeated in April.
However, RBC's base case projections assume further gradual improvements this year with the unemployment rate edging down to 6.3% by year's end, even with job growth softer than historically normal.