RBC Capital Markets reaffirmed Glencore (GLEN.L, GLN.JO) as "best positioned" to capitalize on the impact of the Middle East war on the global energy market, pointing to tight natural gas supplies and rising coal demand as catalysts for the mining giant's second half.
"The re-escalation of the crisis could have far more impact with tighter inventories and coming through peak summer demand. A recent piece from the Global Gas & LNG Strategy shows how far behind the EU gas storage targets on various scenarios of Qatar LNG exports. Higher gas prices [incentivizing] switching in SE Asia and [to a] lesser extent Europe, lifting thermal coal prices (+10% increases spot EBITDA by 4%). We are now expecting a more positive guide to H2 energy marketing earnings from Glencore at results," the research firm said Monday.
While initially forecasting a "very strong" first-half EBIT of $2.5 billion before easing to $1.6 billion in the latter half of 2026, RBC now anticipates an "ever stronger" second half amid "more extreme market dislocations."
Glencore is scheduled to publish its production results on Wednesday and its half-year earnings on Aug. 5.
RBC rates the stock at outperform, with a price target of 6 pounds sterling.