RBC Adjusts Model for TotalEnergies After Softer-than-expected Q2 Trading Update

RBC Capital Markets revised its model for TotalEnergies (TTE.PA, TTE.L), tweaking its earnings estimates, after the French energy giant released a softer-than-expected second-quarter trading update.

"Average liquids realisations in 2Q26 came in at $91.6 [per barrel], $3/bbl below our forecasts and $9/bbl below consensus, with gas [realizations] also coming in weaker. Integrated gas earnings and cash flows are expected to "decrease significantly" [quarter over quarter], reflecting underperformance in gas trading 2Q26 vs outperformance in 1Q26, something we had pointed to the scope for in our 2Q26 Tanker Tracker note," the research firm said Thursday.

"The one bright spot was production, where it appears TTE was able to produce more from the UAE in 2Q than we had expected, with production of ~2.4 [million barrels of oil equivalent per day] ahead of our forecasts and consensus, while downstream indicators were also supportive (alongside oil trading in-line with strong 1Q26 results), however these were more than offset by weakness elsewhere," analysts added, saying they expect investors to focus on "weak realizations" and "notable underperformance" in gas trading compared with peers.

Against this backdrop, the research firm cut its full-year 2026 to 2028 adjusted net income estimates as well as EPS forecasts for the same three-year period.

RBC rates the stock at outperform, with a price target of 85 euros, ahead of the company's second-quarter results due on July 23.

Market Chatter: UK's Burnham Said He Plans North Sea Drilling, Thames Water Nationalization

Incoming UK Prime Minister Andy Burnham is preparing to announce support for new North Sea oil and gas drilling and plans to bring Thames Water under public control shortly after taking office, Bloomberg reported Thursday, citing people familiar with the matter.Burnham, who is due to succeed Keir Starmer on Monday, has asked civil servants to prepare energy and water policy proposals that could be announced as early as next week, according to the report.Options under consideration include backing development of the Jackdaw gas and Rosebank oil fields and expanding drilling tied to existing North Sea projects.Government officials expect Burnham ultimately to support at least the Jackdaw project, though formal approval may be delayed while public consultations continue, the report said.(Market Chatter news is derived from conversations with market professionals globally. This information is believed to be from reliable sources but may include rumor and speculation. Accuracy is not guaranteed.)

US to Impose 25% Section 301 Tariff on Certain Brazilian Imports

The Office of the US Trade Representative said late Wednesday it will impose a 25% tariff on certain imports from Brazil following the conclusion of a Section 301 investigation that found Brazil's trade practices unreasonable and restrictive to U.S. commerce.The action targets issues including digital trade, electronic payment services, preferential tariff treatment, intellectual property protection, ethanol market access, anti-corruption enforcement and illegal deforestation.The tariff will apply to most Brazilian imports, though products including beef, orange juice, aircraft and aircraft parts, and energy products are excluded.

RBC Adjusts Model for TotalEnergies After Softer-than-expected Q2 Trading Update

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