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Rare Earth Market Growth Highlights Growing Western Supply Gap

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The global rare earth elements market is expected to grow from $6.86 billion in 2026 to $10.44 billion by 2030, an annual growth rate of 11.1%, with North America forecast to lead other regions, American News Group said in a statement on Tuesday, citing The Business Research Company.

That growth is expected to coincide with continued pressure on supplies of heavy rare earths and yttrium, where Western production and processing capacity remains limited. Companies active in the sector include Tactical Resources, USA Rare Earth, MP Materials (MP), Energy Fuels (UUUU) and NioCorp Developments, which are pursuing projects tied to rare earth production, processing and supply.

The supply concerns are also reflected in longer-term market forecasts. Persistence Market Research expects the global market to increase from $7.8 billion in 2026 to $15.4 billion by 2033, representing annual growth of 10.2%. It forecasts North America will expand by about 13.6% a year, citing US efforts to develop integrated domestic rare earth supply chains.

China's export policies have added to the focus on alternative supplies. In April 2025, Beijing imposed case-by-case export licensing on seven medium and heavy rare earths: samarium, gadolinium, terbium, dysprosium, lutetium, scandium and yttrium. A broader set of controls announced in October was later suspended following US-China trade talks. That suspension is due to expire on Nov. 10, unless extended or modified.

The supply constraints have contributed to a wide pricing gap between markets. Rare Earth Exchanges, citing S&P Global, reported September North American transactions at $3,250 per kilogram for dysprosium oxide and $7,500 for terbium oxide, compared with Chinese reference prices of about $212-$218 and $988-$997, respectively. The North American figures were individual transactions, not published spot prices. Rare earth shares also rose this week after US President Donald Trump announced a security agreement involving the US, Denmark and Greenland, although the agreement does not grant mining rights.

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