The regional variation in housing market conditions remains stark in Canada, said Bank of Montreal (BMO).
At the strong end, Quebec and Atlantic Canada are seeing firmly balanced or sellers' markets, with house price momentum still running positive, noted the bank. While national home prices are still falling, all major markets east of, and including, Montreal are posting price gains from a year ago.
Alberta markets have pivoted from strength to softness, pointed out BMO. Sales-to-new listings ratios have slipped below 60% in Calgary and Edmonton, which is still balanced territory, but well down from recent readings. Sales in both markets are down meaningfully from a year ago, and prices are down roughly 2%.
Southern Ontario is still the weak spot, especially in the condo space, stated the bank. As of May, condo prices across the province were down 8.3% year over year, with some exurban Greater Toronto Area markets under more pressure, with double-digit declines in Niagara, Kitchener-Waterloo and Barrie. Single-detached prices, however, are down roughly half that amount from a year ago, and have now posted two months of modest gains.
Vancouver and some other markets across British Columbia remain weak as well, with elevated inventories and poor sales activity still dragging down prices. Though Vancouver sales are picking up off the floor (+3.4% year over year), and price declines are moderating, added BMO.