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PepsiCo's Domestic Food Business Recovery Likely Stalled Amid High Gas Prices, RBC Says

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PepsiCo's Domestic Food Business Recovery Likely Stalled Amid High Gas Prices, RBC Says

PepsiCo's (PEP) progress in its North American foods business likely stalled in the second quarter amid higher gasoline prices that may push the company toward the lower end of its full-year guidance, RBC Capital Markets said Thursday.

Salty snack volumes turned positive in the first quarter, but lower product prices amid the Middle East conflict means estimated volume gains in the second quarter won't be enough to lift the portfolio's topline, Nik Modi, RBC's co-head of global consumer and retail research, said in an emailed client note.

In February, the company announced plans to cut prices of several snack brands by up to 15%, including Lay's, Doritos and Cheetos.

RBC lowered PepsiCo's 2026 organic sales growth forecast to 2.8% from 3.2% and its adjusted earnings per share estimate to $8.55 from $8.60. In April, the company said it anticipated core EPS to rise by 5% to 7% and organic sales to increase between 2% and 4%.

"Given the more difficult consumer environment we expect pressure to (PepsiCo's) guidance and would not be surprised to be pointed towards the lower end of ranges," according to Modi. "(PepsiCo's) domestic business has been most volatile, stemming in large part due to (PepsiCo Foods North America's) challenges. While there has been progress, higher gas prices has stalled improvement."

Gasoline prices in the US have fallen from $4.29 per gallon a month ago as the US and Iran agreed to end their war and reopen the Strait of Hormuz.

PepsiCo is scheduled to release its second-quarter results on July 9. Analysts polled by FactSet expect the company to report adjusted EPS of $2.21 and revenue of $23.96 billion. RBC expects adjusted EPS of $2.16 on revenue of $23.99 billion.

PepsiCo's international business remains resilient, said the brokerage, which has a sector perform rating on the company's stock with a price target of $163.

"Overall, we expect solid international growth with the primary focus still on (PepsiCo's) domestic business," Modi said.

Price: $143.58, Change: $+2.42, Percent Change: +1.71%

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