The outlook for the Australian general insurers will remain driven by moderating premium growth, while share prices will likely reflect the sector's defensive characteristics, Jefferies said in a Wednesday note.
Premium growth moderated in fiscal 2026 due to increased competition, affordability issues, and lower reinsurance costs. Commercial lines remain in a rate-reduction phase due to increased capacity, while domestic personal lines should remain positive due to persistent weather-related vulnerability.
The sector's shares have performed well, with QBE Insurance Group (ASX:QBE) up 28% year-to-date, followed by Suncorp Group (ASX:SUN) at 6.5%, and Insurance Australia Group (ASX:IAG) 2.8%. Jefferies attributed the performance to the sector's defensive characteristics and earnings resilience.
The investment firm retained the buy rating on Insurance Australia Group and raised the price target to AU$9.45 from AU$8.75. It downgraded QBE Insurance to hold from buy and raised the price target to AU$27.50 from AU$26.25. It retained the hold rating on Suncorp and raised the price target to AU$19.75 from AU$18.40.