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OPEC+ Reportedly Seen Holding Oil Output Policy Steady Amid Middle East Conflict

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OPEC+ is projected to leave its oil output policy unchanged in October, when seven key members meet on Sunday, as the group completes the rollback of a tranche of production cuts and shifts focus to negotiating 2027 quotas, according to multiple media outlets citing delegates and industry sources.

The meeting comes as the war involving Iran continues to disrupt crude exports via the Strait of Hormuz, weakening the producer cartel's ability to influence global oil prices and regain market share, Reuters reported.

A sub-group led by Saudi Arabia and Russia has only nominally completed this month's output increase, as the conflict has prevented Middle East members from implementing the hikes in practice, Bloomberg said, citing delegates.

OPEC+'s September production increase, agreed in early August, completed the phased unwinding of a 1.65 million-barrel-per-day cut introduced in 2023, Reuters said. The reduction was agreed when the UAE, which officially exited OPEC in May, was still part of the producer group.

Delegates told Bloomberg the group already has a provisional agreement to hold off on restoring a further, larger tranche of supply idled since 2022 until at least the start of next year.

Even without war-related disruptions, few members other than Saudi Arabia have the technical capacity to restore output to those earlier levels, after years of underinvestment, sanctions, and other setbacks eroded capacity elsewhere in the cartel, Bloomberg reported.

Separately, OPEC+ is reviewing members' production capacity to set 2027 output baselines, with a report from a Texas-based firm due to OPEC by the end of September, Reuters said, citing a source.

Sunday's online meeting will bring together seven key members of the group, including Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Algeria, Kazakhstan and Oman.

OPEC did not immediately respond to a request for comment from.

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