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OPEC Lowers 2026 Global Oil Demand Growth Forecast in August

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The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries has lowered its 2026 global oil demand growth forecast projecting year-on-year growth of 600,000 barrels per day, down from a prediction last month for 800,000 barrels per day more.

In 2027, global oil demand is expected to grow by about 2.2 million barrels/d, y-o-y, following an upward revision from last month's assessment, the group said.

Liquids production from countries not participating in the Declaration of Cooperation, is expected to grow by 600,000 b/d on average in 2026 unchanged from the previous report.

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Hormuz Traffic Remains Subdued as Security Risks Persist, Oil Flows Recover

Commercial vessel traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remained below normal levels this week as Iranian forces continued to harass ships and the risk of mines persisted, as US officials claimed oil flows out of the Gulf had recovered to pre-conflict levels.UKMTO said activity by Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, including hailing, drone overflights and targeted surveillance of merchant shipping, continued despite a lack of confirmed reports of attacks in the strait itself.The maritime security agency reported two new attacks, one each, on ships in the Gulf of Oman and the Red Sea, highlighting the widening threat to maritime trade.Three crew members were killed in a suspected attack in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between the Red Sea and the Indian Ocean, while a container ship was hit by a missile off the Pakistan coast.The UKMTO said multiple open-source reports attributed the Bab el-Mandeb Strait attack to Yemen's Iran-aligned Houthi militias, although the group had not claimed responsibility.Commercial traffic through the waterway remained suppressed, with independent tracking data showing single-digit numbers of tankers moving in each direction.UKMTO also warned of the continued risk from drifting or uncharted mines in and around the traffic separation scheme.However, despite the subdued vessel traffic, US Energy Secretary Chris Wright said crude flows out of the Arabian Gulf had rebounded.The seven-day average of oil leaving the Hormuz had risen to almost 9 million barrels per day, Secretary Wright said Tuesday in an X post.He said a further 5 million to 7 million b/d was leaving the region through upgraded pipelines and export facilities, putting total regional oil flows at about 15 million b/d.Over 20 million barrels left the Arabian Gulf region on Sunday alone, Wright said, above the pre-conflict average.Meanwhile, the US Central Command said on Tuesday that its forces had redirected 55 commercial vessels attempting to run the blockade, disabled three non-compliant vessels and boarded two as part of efforts to control maritime traffic.Traffic data compiled by Kpler showed the disruption remained pronounced over the weekend.Confirmed crossings through Hormuz fell from 15 on Friday, Aug. 7, to 11 on Saturday and just six on Sunday, for a three-day total of 32. Routing was concentrated, with 17 vessels using Iran's unilateral scheme and 10 classified as having an undetermined route, the data analytics firm said.Bab el-Mandeb, in contrast, remained considerably busier, with 116 crossings over the same three days. Daily traffic there was relatively stable at 43 crossings on Friday, 37 on Saturday and 36 on Sunday.Kpler said 12 "dark" transits and elevated sanctioned activity in the Bab el-Mandeb continued to raise concerns over vessel visibility and maritime risk.Traffic through the southern Red Sea and Bab el-Mandeb remained below normal levels, consistent with the pattern after the Houthis' July 20 declaration of a naval blockade against Saudi Arabia and an earlier confirmed attack on a Saudi-linked tanker.

Oil & Energy

US Oil Update: Crude Settles Higher as Iran Hardens Stance on Hormuz Deal Amid Ship Attacks

Crude futures settled higher in after-hours trading on Tuesday as fading prospects for an agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz collided with fresh security incidents in the strategic waterway.Front-month West Texas Intermediate crude futures climbed by 1.3% to $83.23 per barrel, while Brent futures advanced by 1.9% to $89.36/bbl.Bjarne Schieldrop, chief commodities analyst at SEB Research, said that Iran has made it clear that an agreement with Oman does not lead to a reopening of Hormuz before the US complies with the MOU signed between the two sides earlier this summer.Iranian Foreign Minister Seyed Abbas Araghchi said on Tuesday that securing the Hormuz requires an end to US aggression, including the blockade of Iranian ports.The secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council also said the key chokepoint would remain closed unless the US meets Tehran's conditions.President Trump, on the other hand, alleged that Iran was an unfair negotiator, while describing some of his current options in the conflict, "just bop along" and let Tehran fail economically or hit them "really, really hard," according to media reports.Saxo Bank strategists said that uncertainty over a US-Iran deal to end the conflict and reopen the Hormuz has grown after Trump demanded compensation for victims of Iranian-backed conflicts, responding to Tehran's reparations claims.Fueling bullish sentiment, the UK Maritime Trade Operations reported two new attacks on ships in the Gulf of Oman and the Red Sea, highlighting the widening threat to maritime trade.Three crew members were killed in a suspected attack in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between the Red Sea and the Indian Ocean, while a container ship was hit by a missile off the Pakistan coast, UKMTO said.On the supply side, US Energy Secretary Chris Wright said that crude flows out of the Arabian Gulf have risen to about 15 million barrels per day as shipping through the Hormuz recovers with the help of the US military and Gulf allies.The seven-day average for oil moving through the Strait of Hormuz has climbed to almost 9 million b/d, Wright said, while another 5 million to 7 million b/d are being exported through newly upgraded pipelines and facilities that bypass the strategic waterway.The Energy Information Administration, in its August Short-Term Energy Outlook, projected that US crude inventories should remain below the 2021/25 five-year low through the end of 2026 as refiners maintain high runs and net imports stay low.The agency said that US crude net imports fell below 1 million b/d in April and May as crude exports hit record highs while imports declined, putting pressure on domestic stocks.

Oil & Energy

Nigeria Unveils Framework to Unlock $50 Billion in Deep Offshore Investment

Nigeria President Bola Ahmed Tinubu approved a framework targeting up to $50 billion in new deep offshore investment, the presidency said Tuesday.The reform replaces project-by-project negotiations with a rules-based system aimed at restarting large, capital-intensive offshore developments that have remained stalled for decades.The framework will support the next generation of deep offshore projects, starting with the approximately $10 billion Bonga South West project, while improving Nigeria's appeal to global investors.The government developed the reform after Tinubu's engagement with Shell (SHEL) chief executive officer Wael Sawan, converting the President's directive into a framework covering multiple eligible offshore developments.The Deep Offshore Oil and Gas Projects Incentives (Tax Remission) Order, 2026, establishes eligibility criteria and implementation processes designed to give investors greater certainty while protecting Nigeria's long-term interests.Nigeria's new deepwater oil projects can receive tax credits of up to $11.50 per barrel under the executive order, with the incentives available through Dec. 31, 2029, according to a Bloomberg report.The framework also allows Nigerian National Petroleum Company, the government's nominated counterparty under production sharing contracts, to amend eligible agreements needed to implement the new investment structure.Projects qualifying under the framework will prioritize work in Nigeria where commercially and technically feasible, supporting local engineering, fabrication, marine logistics, technical services and project management, the presidency said.The government expects the reform to boost investment and production while creating skilled jobs, strengthening local supply chains and positioning Nigeria as a regional deep offshore project hub."This reform reflects our determination to build an investment environment defined by clear rules, strong institutions and enduring partnerships," President Bola Ahmed Tinubu said.

$SHEL