The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries lowered its global oil demand growth outlook for 2026 on Wednesday while projecting a stronger rebound for next year than previously estimated.
The cartel now expects oil consumption this year to rise by 580,000 barrels a day this year, down from its previous month's outlook for an increase of 780,000 barrels and marking its fourth consecutive downward revision. For 2027, OPEC now forecasts world oil demand to increase by 2.16 million barrels a day, compared with a gain of 1.94 million barrels projected in July.
In a separate Wednesday report, the International Energy Agency projected a larger decline in global oil demand this year than previously estimated, as the continued closure of the Strait of Hormuz weighs on consumption.
Renewed hostilities in the Middle East sent crude prices higher by more than 20% in July, with markets still uncertain over a potential reopening of the strategic waterway.
West Texas Intermediate crude was little changed at $83.17 a barrel in Wednesday afternoon trade, while Brent fell 0.2% to $88.71.
Earlier this month, seven members of OPEC and its allies -- dubbed as OPEC+ -- agreed to further increase output targets by 188,000 barrels a day from September.
OPEC now expects the world economy to expand at a 3% rate for 2026, down from its 3.1% growth outlook provided last month. "The revision is largely technical, reflecting selective output levels rather than a change in the underlying global growth dynamic, which continues to point to resilient momentum through the remainder of the year," the organization said Wednesday.
The resilience is expected to be sustained through the second half, with strong artificial intelligence spending momentum and consumer spending across major economies to remain the principal drivers, according to the report.
For 2027, the cartel held its global economic growth forecast steady at 3.2%. Growth projections for the US were left unchanged at 2.2% and 2% for 2026 and 2027, respectively.
OPEC continues to forecast an increase in liquids production, including crude oil, condensate and natural gas liquids, from countries not participating in the Declaration of Cooperation, or DoC, by 640,000 barrels a day this year. The DoC is the name for OPEC+, which comprises OPEC and non-OPEC allies.
