FINWIRES · TerminalLIVE
FINWIRES

Oil Update: Crude Rallies as Iran Rhetoric, Aramco Attack Fuels Supply Concerns

By

Global crude futures settled higher in after-hours trading on Thursday as hawkish rhetoric from Iran and US leaders, attacks on Aramco facilities and stalled diplomatic efforts revived concern that the conflict could further disrupt global energy supplies.

Dubai 1st Line Futures rallied 6.2% to $105.15/bbl. Front-month West Texas Intermediate futures were up 3.8% to $95.29 per barrel, while Brent futures surged by 4.3% to $107.56/bbl.

Gelber & Associates strategists said that Iran and the US remain divided over the naval blockade and reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, leaving regional crude movements impaired despite continued diplomacy.

Iran's top security official said on Thursday that the country won't return to its pre-war diplomatic approach toward the US, a day after President Masoud Pezeshkian told the UN General Assembly that Iran would not surrender in the conflict with the US.

Fueling bullish sentiment, Yemen's Houthis said on Thursday that they had launched missile and drone attacks on what they called "a sensitive target" in Saudi Arabia's capital, Riyadh and on Saudi Aramco facilities in the Red Sea city of Yanbu.

Meanwhile, US energy and business groups have urged President Trump to reject calls to ban or cut diesel exports, warning that such measures would reduce refinery output and push up fuel prices for American consumers. The call comes a day after Trump administration officials reportedly told oil industry leaders to brace for possible curbs on diesel exports.

What else is happening in Commodities?

Commodities

Maine's Senators Urge Trump to Tap Heating Oil Reserve as Prices Rise 74%

Two US senators from Maine, Susan Collins and Angus King, sent a joint letter to President Donald Trump on Tuesday, seeking a release of home heating oil from the Northeast Home Heating Oil Reserve "to protect Mainers from the very high prices."Collins is a Republican, while King is an independent who caucuses with Democrats. The senators noted that Trump ordered a US Strategic Petroleum Reserve release earlier this year to counter rising energy costs and said the same urgency applies to the Northeast reserve. "The Northeast is experiencing a home heating oil price spike," the letter stated.Citing the Maine Department of Energy Resources' latest weekly fuel survey, the senators said statewide heating oil prices are up 74% from a year ago. "It now costs about $675 more to fill a standard tank than it did last year - a significant hardship for the half of Maine households that heat their homes with fuel oil," the letter said.The letter also pointed to the US Energy Information Administration's latest Short-Term Energy Outlook, which revealed distillate fuel inventories, including home heating oil, fell below the five-year range in April. The agency expects stockpiles to stay below the 2021-2025 low through the end of 2026 and most of 2027.The senators added that the conflict in the Middle East and the Russia-Ukraine War have kept additional heating oil from reaching the global market. "Maine is particularly vulnerable to global supply shocks because our state imports much of our home heating oil. With both domestic and international supplies running low, a release from the Northeast Home Heating Oil Reserve would help ease these prices," the senators said.

Commodities

US Power Update: Prices Swing as ERCOT Records Intraday Low of -$116.49/MWh

US electricity markets saw wide price swings, with locational marginal prices varying sharply across regions, while gas led the generation mix across most regions, according to data from GridStatus.io.Electric Reliability Council of Texas led the markets at 5 p.m. ET with a locational marginal price of $50.39 per megawatt-hour, compared with $23.32/MWh for Independent System Operator New England, which posted the lowest price at that hour.For intraday peaks, New York Independent System Operator reached $194.68/MWh at 4:05 p.m. ET, while ERCOT recorded the lowest LMP, flipping to a negative at -$116.49/MWh at 9:35 a.m. ET.The National Weather Service's Climate Prediction Center forecasts above-normal temperatures across most of the US from Oct. 1-7, with near-normal readings across most of the Midwest.Meanwhile, Hurricane Polo could approach Mexico's Baja California coast while remaining at hurricane strength early next week, adding another weather factor to the regional outlook, according to a Bloomberg report on Wednesday.

Commodities

Natural Gas Update: US Prices Rise on Inventory Expectations, While European Prices Gain Despite Renewed Peace Talks

US natural gas futures rallied to a 2.5-month high on Wednesday as traders anticipated a below-average weekly storage build, while European prices rose despite renewed US-Iran peace talks after a sharp drop earlier in the week.In the US, front-month Henry Hub futures rose 1.80% to $3.173 per million British thermal units, while in Europe, Dutch TTF prices rose by 1.023% to 74.090 euros ($84.32) per megawatt-hour, and UK NBP gained 1.623% to 185.340 British pence ($2.45) per therm in late trade.The US Energy Information Administration is expected to report Thursday that US inventories rose about 51 billion cubic feet in the week ended Sept. 18, versus a five-year average build of 76 Bcf. That would narrow the storage surplus, currently 3.7% above the five-year seasonal average. Late-summer cooling demand in the South and south-central US has helped erode the surplus, market sources said.Commodity Weather Group said forecasts turned cooler Wednesday, with near-normal temperatures expected across most of the country from Sept. 28-Oct. 2. Above-normal temperatures are still forecast in the South through Oct. 6, potentially further extending air-conditioning demand, Trading Economics said. Strong LNG exports are also supporting demand, with average flows to the nine major US LNG plants rising to 18 Bcf/d in September from 17.2 Bcf/d in August, Trading Economics said.European gas prices rose after a steep selloff earlier in the week was prompted by renewed US-Iran talks. Low inventories supported prices as EU storage is only about 69% full, versus an 85% five-year seasonal average. Norwegian gas exports to EU member countries also remain constrained by maintenance, Trading Economics said. The continuous front-month TTF contract has traded between about 26.50 euros/MWh and 79 euros/MWh since the beginning of the year, as the Middle East conflict added a risk premium to European gas prices, EuroNews reported.