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Oil Update: Crude Falls as Saudi Arabia Plans Pipeline Restart, US-Iran Talks in Focus

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Global crude futures fell to a two-week low in after-hours trading on Tuesday as reports of Saudi Arabia's plans to restart the East-West pipeline and signs of possible talks between the US and Iran eased supply-risk concerns.

Dubai 1st Line Futures dropped 1.8% to $94.23/bbl. Front-month West Texas Intermediate futures fell 0.7% to $95.25 per barrel, while Brent futures retreated 1.9% to $98.28/bbl.

President Trump reportedly said that the US met with Iran's delegation for three hours on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly in New York City. "It was a very good meeting," Trump told reporters during a bilateral meeting with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy at the UN.

Trump also said that said he has a "big decision" to make on whether to seek a negotiated deal with Iran or "annihilate the Islamic Republic." Soojin Kim, research analyst at MUFG, said that the prospects for diplomacy are compressing the geopolitical premium, but continued disruptions across Hormuz, Saudi export infrastructure, and the Red Sea leave the physical market vulnerable.

Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia has restarted operations at its East-West Pipeline and could resume crude exports from the Red Sea port of Yanbu, according to media reports. Iran has reportedly suggested it could reopen the Strait of Hormuz within seven days if the US eases military pressure and lifts its blockade on Iranian ports.

Saxo Bank strategists said that the decline of about 2% in Brent prices on Monday followed signs that Saudi Arabia is restoring capacity on its East-West pipeline after last week's drone strikes, alongside progress in diplomatic efforts to end the US-Iran war.

What else is happening in Oil & Energy?

Oil & Energy

Update: UK Reportedly Weighs Providing Military Support to Saudi Arabia Against Houthi Attack

(Updates headline and text to reflect Burnham's reported response on Saudi refueling based on multiple reports, removes Market Chatter moniker.)The UK will offer military support for a limited time to Saudi Arabia, with the Royal Air Force providing air-to-air refueling of Saudi planes, according to multiple media reports on Monday.In a press briefing while traveling to New York for the UN General Assembly on Monday, UK Prime Minister Andy Burnham said that the UK had received a request from Saudi Arabia for military support.He added that acting on the advice from the defence secretary and foreign secretary, he had agreed to the request for "defensive air-to-air refueling."He added that as Saudi Arabia was experiencing strikes, pathways had to be kept open, and so he agreed to the request.He noted that the agreement was a time-limited agreement in terms of UK assistance and that they would keep it under review.Bloomberg first reported that the UK was close to an agreement with Saudi Arabia to provide military support to help counter frequent attacks from Iran-backed Houthi militants, citing sources familiar with the matter.The UK government also plans to lobby allies to provide similar aid. Sources reportedly said Burnham's administration believes assisting Saudi Arabia will help stabilize the region and protect commercial shipping in the strategic Bab el-Mandeb strait.The Prime Minister's office and the UK Ministry of Defense did not immediately respond to' requests for comment.

Oil & Energy

Higher Hormuz Oil Flows May Offset Supply Risks From Russia-Ukraine Strikes, Macquarie Says

Russia-Ukraine energy strikes show little sign of easing, but rising Hormuz oil flows could ease supply pressure and slow inventory draws, Macquarie energy strategist Walt Chancellor said in a Monday note.US President Donald Trump said Russia and Ukraine had agreed last Monday to stop attacking energy targets, briefly sending crude prices lower. Chancellor said subsequent strikes, including attacks near Moscow, offered little evidence of a lasting agreement.Chancellor said Ukraine's attacks on energy infrastructure highlight the strategic value of such assets, pointing to the Caspian Pipeline Consortium terminal in Novorossiysk. The terminal handles mostly Kazakh crude, while US companies, particularly Chevron (CVX), have invested heavily in Kazakhstan's upstream sector.Markets should not dismiss US statements on Middle East oil supplies as dark transits limit visibility into regional flows, Chancellor said. Hormuz shipments have risen above 8.5 million barrels per day since Aug. 30 and may have reached 10 million b/d by Sept. 18.He said additional flows could eventually halt global inventory draws, with 2 million b/d from Fujairah and another 2 million b/d to 4 million b/d potentially moving through the Red Sea.The higher oil flows also come with tighter shipping conditions, as Hormuz and Red Sea routes, longer voyages, US exports, Panama restrictions, and sanctions lift VLCC rates and vessel values while widening regional oil price differences, Chancellor said.

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Oil & Energy

Oil Update: Crude Tumbles as Trump Signals Iran Talks, Saudi Exports Recover

Crude futures tumbled in after-hours trading on Monday, as markets weighed the prospect of peace talks between the US and Iran amid signs that Saudi Arabia was recovering some crude exports despite the widening Middle East conflict.Front-month West Texas Intermediate futures tumbled 4.8% to $95.48 per barrel, while Brent futures fell 3.6% to $100.16/bbl. Dubai 1st Line Futures were down 3.1% to $90.92/bbl.ING strategists said that the pullback comes despite ongoing geopolitical risks and continued concerns over global oil supply disruptions.President Trump reportedly halted strikes against Yemen's Houthis for now, while indicating that he was open to meeting Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian during the UN General Assembly.On the supply front, Saudi Aramco loaded about 14 million barrels of crude on seven supertankers inside the Mideast Gulf on Sunday, according to media reports. The Gulf state has reportedly moved about 2.9 million barrels per day of crude through the Hormuz over the past six days, up from just 700,000 b/d in August.The US Central Command also said crude and LNG flows through Hormuz have reached a six-month high over the past two weeks, with key transit lanes clear of mines.Gelber & Associates strategists said Saudi exports have recovered to above 4 million b/d in September from 2.4 million b/d in August, with flows through the Strait of Hormuz averaging 2.9 million b/d during the past six days.