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Oil Update: Crude Benchmarks Rebound as Supply Concerns Persist

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Global oil futures gained more than 1% on Tuesday, snapping a four-day losing streak driven by supply concerns as traders watched for progress on high-stakes diplomatic talks.

Dubai 1st Line Futures rebounded more than 2% to $93.05/bbl. Front-month West Texas Intermediate futures gained 1.7% to $97.40 per barrel, while Brent futures rose 1.8% to $102.10/bbl.

Traders are closely watching high-level UN diplomatic talks involving the US, Iran, China, and Gulf leaders regarding regional stability and a proposed reconstruction fund.

In Libya, an armed group shut down a key pipeline valve at the Sharara field, causing a significant production decline.

US refining margins surged due to a sharp rise in Midwest diesel cracks, with GasBuddy data showing national diesel prices averaging $7.01 per gallon. US land rig counts edged slightly higher, and Strategic Petroleum Reserve inventories declined to 284.6 million barrels.

What else is happening in Oil & Energy?

Oil & Energy

Update: UK Reportedly Weighs Providing Military Support to Saudi Arabia Against Houthi Attack

(Updates headline and text to reflect Burnham's reported response on Saudi refueling based on multiple reports, removes Market Chatter moniker.)The UK will offer military support for a limited time to Saudi Arabia, with the Royal Air Force providing air-to-air refueling of Saudi planes, according to multiple media reports on Monday.In a press briefing while traveling to New York for the UN General Assembly on Monday, UK Prime Minister Andy Burnham said that the UK had received a request from Saudi Arabia for military support.He added that acting on the advice from the defence secretary and foreign secretary, he had agreed to the request for "defensive air-to-air refueling."He added that as Saudi Arabia was experiencing strikes, pathways had to be kept open, and so he agreed to the request.He noted that the agreement was a time-limited agreement in terms of UK assistance and that they would keep it under review.Bloomberg first reported that the UK was close to an agreement with Saudi Arabia to provide military support to help counter frequent attacks from Iran-backed Houthi militants, citing sources familiar with the matter.The UK government also plans to lobby allies to provide similar aid. Sources reportedly said Burnham's administration believes assisting Saudi Arabia will help stabilize the region and protect commercial shipping in the strategic Bab el-Mandeb strait.The Prime Minister's office and the UK Ministry of Defense did not immediately respond to' requests for comment.

Oil & Energy

Higher Hormuz Oil Flows May Offset Supply Risks From Russia-Ukraine Strikes, Macquarie Says

Russia-Ukraine energy strikes show little sign of easing, but rising Hormuz oil flows could ease supply pressure and slow inventory draws, Macquarie energy strategist Walt Chancellor said in a Monday note.US President Donald Trump said Russia and Ukraine had agreed last Monday to stop attacking energy targets, briefly sending crude prices lower. Chancellor said subsequent strikes, including attacks near Moscow, offered little evidence of a lasting agreement.Chancellor said Ukraine's attacks on energy infrastructure highlight the strategic value of such assets, pointing to the Caspian Pipeline Consortium terminal in Novorossiysk. The terminal handles mostly Kazakh crude, while US companies, particularly Chevron (CVX), have invested heavily in Kazakhstan's upstream sector.Markets should not dismiss US statements on Middle East oil supplies as dark transits limit visibility into regional flows, Chancellor said. Hormuz shipments have risen above 8.5 million barrels per day since Aug. 30 and may have reached 10 million b/d by Sept. 18.He said additional flows could eventually halt global inventory draws, with 2 million b/d from Fujairah and another 2 million b/d to 4 million b/d potentially moving through the Red Sea.The higher oil flows also come with tighter shipping conditions, as Hormuz and Red Sea routes, longer voyages, US exports, Panama restrictions, and sanctions lift VLCC rates and vessel values while widening regional oil price differences, Chancellor said.

$CVX
Oil & Energy

Oil Update: Crude Tumbles as Trump Signals Iran Talks, Saudi Exports Recover

Crude futures tumbled in after-hours trading on Monday, as markets weighed the prospect of peace talks between the US and Iran amid signs that Saudi Arabia was recovering some crude exports despite the widening Middle East conflict.Front-month West Texas Intermediate futures tumbled 4.8% to $95.48 per barrel, while Brent futures fell 3.6% to $100.16/bbl. Dubai 1st Line Futures were down 3.1% to $90.92/bbl.ING strategists said that the pullback comes despite ongoing geopolitical risks and continued concerns over global oil supply disruptions.President Trump reportedly halted strikes against Yemen's Houthis for now, while indicating that he was open to meeting Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian during the UN General Assembly.On the supply front, Saudi Aramco loaded about 14 million barrels of crude on seven supertankers inside the Mideast Gulf on Sunday, according to media reports. The Gulf state has reportedly moved about 2.9 million barrels per day of crude through the Hormuz over the past six days, up from just 700,000 b/d in August.The US Central Command also said crude and LNG flows through Hormuz have reached a six-month high over the past two weeks, with key transit lanes clear of mines.Gelber & Associates strategists said Saudi exports have recovered to above 4 million b/d in September from 2.4 million b/d in August, with flows through the Strait of Hormuz averaging 2.9 million b/d during the past six days.