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Oil Prices Maybe Overlooking Persistent Middle East Supply Risks, RBC Says

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Oil prices may be underestimating the risk of prolonged Middle East supply disruptions despite recent diplomatic progress, as shipping through the Strait of Hormuz remains sharply reduced and attacks on regional energy infrastructure continue, RBC Capital Markets analysts said in a Tuesday note.

The analysts noted that oil prices fell earlier this week after the bombing paused and reports pointed to progress in diplomatic talks, even though commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains severely disrupted and the conflict has spread into the Red Sea.

RBC estimates daily commodity vessel transits through the strait have fallen to six on a seven-day moving average, down 50% from a week earlier. Meanwhile, Yemen's Houthis have claimed multiple attacks on Saudi oil facilities, including sites at Jizan and Yanbu.

The analysts said they remain "exceedingly skeptical" that negotiations are close to resolving the nuclear dispute that sparked the conflict five months ago or restoring normal maritime traffic.

While both Washington and Tehran have reasons to pause hostilities, Iran to repair damage and the US to conserve Patriot missile inventories and benefit from lower oil prices, RBC said even a renewed memorandum of understanding is unlikely to bring shipping back quickly after recent attacks, including the fatal strike on an ADNOC tanker.

Persistent threats from missiles, drones, naval mines and possible Iranian transit tolls are expected to keep a significant share of global shipping capacity sidelined despite improving diplomatic headlines, the bank said.

RBC also warned that escalating attacks by Iran and its regional allies on energy infrastructure could delay the restart of damaged facilities even under a favorable diplomatic outcome.

The analysts added that weaker oil prices could strengthen advocates of a more aggressive military approach and said investors closely watched Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's late-July visit to Washington.

RBC also noted the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve stood at about 308 million barrels, only modestly above a functional floor of 300 million barrels.

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