FINWIRES · TerminalLIVE
FINWIRES

Oil Oversupply Risk Returns as Hormuz Flows Recover, Non-OPEC Exports Hit Record High, Vortexa Says

By

The recovery in OPEC crude flows through the Strait of Hormuz, combined with record-high non-OPEC exports, is raising the risk of global oil oversupply, according to a report by Vortexa.

Xavier Tang, a Vortexa senior market analyst noted that seaborne crude and condensate liftings through the strait increased for a second consecutive week ended July 5, with Saudi Arabia and the UAE boosting exports, with the latter already reaching pre-war export levels.

Non-OPEC crude exports have surged to a record 28.5 million barrels per day in June, driven by US Strategic Petroleum Reserve releases, higher Brazilian production, and increased shipments from Russia, Guyana, Kazakhstan, Canada and Norway.

Tang warned that if OPEC exports return to pre-conflict levels while non-OPEC supplies remain high, the global seaborne crude surplus could reach 3 million bpd, compared to a 12 to 14 million bpd deficit from March to May, at the peak of the Hormuz crisis.

The report also noted that a recovery in Chinese crude demand will be critical to absorbing the additional supply, with subdued buying from the world's largest crude importer now the biggest obstacle to a sustained rebound in oil prices.

Related Articles

Oil & Energy

Update: US Treasury Revokes Iran Oil Sales Authorization, Sets July 17 Wind-Down Deadline

(Updates with a response from the White House in paragraphs 5-8.)The US revoked its general license authorizing certain Iranian oil transactions and allowed a wind-down period through July 17, the Department of the Treasury's Office of Foreign Assets Control said in a statement on Tuesday.The Department revoked the earlier Iran-related General License X and replaced it with General License X1, effective July 7. The new license replaces the June 21 authorization in its entirety.On June 22, OFAC issued Iran General License X, "Authorizing the Production, Delivery and Sale of Crude Oil, Petrochemical Products, and Petroleum Products of Iranian-Origin through August 21, 2026."However, Tuesday's license has revoked this authorization of new transactions involving the production, purchase, loading, sale, delivery, or offloading of Iranian crude oil, petrochemical products, or petroleum products on or after July 7, except where necessary to complete the wind-down.OFAC is revoking GL X, which authorized the sale of Iranian oil, a US official confirmed tovia email."As President Trump and the administration have repeatedly affirmed, the MOU in effect with Iran is entirely performance-based," the official said, adding that Iran will only reap benefits if they exhibit "good behavior."The officials said diplomatic efforts remain underway, but Iran's recent actions were "wholly unacceptable.""Iran's actions in the Strait were wholly unacceptable to the United States and will be met with consequences. Our negotiators continue to work in good faith towards a final deal," the official said.The new license also excludes transactions involving parties in North Korea, Cuba, or the covered and Crimea regions of Ukraine, as well as activities prohibited under other applicable sanctions authorities.The US action followed reports from the British navy-linked United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations agency that commercial tankers sustained damage from unidentified projectiles in and around the Strait of Hormuz in recent days. Two strikes on tankers in the strait were reported on Tuesday, while another tanker was hit on Monday.General License X1 authorizes transactions ordinarily necessary to wind down activities previously permitted under General License X through 12:01 a.m. Eastern Daylight Time on July 17, provided payments to blocked persons are made into blocked, interest-bearing US accounts.Oil markets reacted sharply to the announcement, with Brent crude rising about 5% to $75.58 per barrel and US West Texas Intermediate increasing about 4.7% to $71.80/bbl.

Oil & Energy

Market Chatter: Israel Proposes Oil Pipeline Linking Gulf to Europe

Israel proposed a new oil transportation corridor connecting Gulf producers with European markets through its existing pipeline network, offering an alternative to the Strait of Hormuz and Red Sea shipping lanes, Reuters reported Tuesday, citing Energy Minister Eli Cohen.Cohen said the concept calls for a roughly 700-kilometer pipeline from Saudi Arabia to Israel's Red Sea city of Eilat, where crude would move through the country's pipeline system to the Mediterranean port of Ashkelon, the report said.He said the proposal would reduce exporters' exposure to regional maritime disruptions and provide Gulf producers with another route to European customers, according to the report.(Market Chatter news is derived from conversations with market professionals globally. This information is believed to be from reliable sources but may include rumor and speculation. Accuracy is not guaranteed.)

Oil & Energy

US Treasury Revokes Iran Oil Sales Authorization, Sets July 17 Wind-Down Deadline

The US revoked its general license authorizing certain Iranian oil transactions and allowed a wind-down period through July 17, the Department of the Treasury's Office of Foreign Assets Control said in a statement on Tuesday.The Department revoked the earlier Iran-related General License X and replaced it with General License X1, effective July 7. The new license replaces the June 21 authorization in its entirety.On June 22, OFAC issued Iran General License X, "Authorizing the Production, Delivery and Sale of Crude Oil, Petrochemical Products, and Petroleum Products of Iranian-Origin through August 21, 2026."However, Tuesday's license has revoked this authorization of new transactions involving the production, purchase, loading, sale, delivery, or offloading of Iranian crude oil, petrochemical products, or petroleum products on or after July 7, except where necessary to complete the wind-down.The new license also excludes transactions involving parties in North Korea, Cuba, or the covered and Crimea regions of Ukraine, as well as activities prohibited under other applicable sanctions authorities.The US action followed reports from the British navy-linked United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations agency that commercial tankers sustained damage from unidentified projectiles in and around the Strait of Hormuz in recent days. Two strikes on tankers in the strait were reported on Tuesday, while another tanker was hit on Monday.General License X1 authorizes transactions ordinarily necessary to wind down activities previously permitted under General License X through 12:01 a.m. Eastern Daylight Time on July 17, provided payments to blocked persons are made into blocked, interest-bearing US accounts.The White House did not immediately respond to' request for comment.Oil markets reacted sharply to the announcement, with Brent crude rising about 5% to $75.58 per barrel and US West Texas Intermediate increasing about 4.7% to $71.80/bbl.