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Oil May Hit $200/bbl if Strait of Hormuz Remains Closed Into 2027, Macquarie Says

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Oil prices could climb toward $200 per barrel if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed into 2027, even though markets have so far weathered the largest supply disruption in history, Macquarie analysts said in a Wednesday note.

The waterway has been effectively closed for three months, reducing global oil supplies by about 14%. Despite the loss, front-month Brent crude is trading below $100/bbl, about one-third above pre-conflict levels and roughly half the inflation-adjusted peak reached in 2008.

According to Macquarie, the relatively muted price response reflects the large oil inventories accumulated before the conflict.

The bank noted that global stockpiles were elevated amid what the International Energy Agency had previously described as "untenable surpluses," helping the market avoid widespread shortages of crude oil and refined products.

Citing S&P Global data, Macquarie said global oil and product inventories stood at about 7.2 billion barrels as of May 22, down roughly 380 million barrels from late February levels but still around 200 million barrels above those seen in early 2025.

The bank estimates inventories have been declining by about 5 million barrels per day over the past month. If that pace continues, stocks could return to early-2025 lows by July, approach 2022 trough levels by August and fall below the range seen so far this decade by September.

While the market is likely to remain adequately supplied for another month or two, aided by draws from strategic petroleum reserves and product inventories, Macquarie warned that physical availability would tighten significantly if the Strait remains closed beyond the northern hemisphere summer.

The bank said Brent prices could rise to between $130/bbl and $150/bbl if the disruption persists through early September. Should the conflict continue into 2027, prices of around $200/bbl may be needed to rebalance the global oil market.

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