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Oil Markets Plummet on Strait of Hormuz Reopening Expectations, Macquarie Says

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Energy markets have responded positively to the prospect of de-escalation, with Brent futures falling about roughly $6 per barrel since Wednesday, according to Macquarie analysts in a Friday note.

Strategists said this drop reflects expectations that the Strait of Hormuz could fully reopen to commercial shipping and ease concerns over global energy supplies.

Lower oil prices have boosted equities, government bonds, and major currencies against the US dollar. Analysts said oil-importing economies stand to benefit disproportionately from reduced energy costs, supporting growth and investment returns while easing inflation pressures.

If the Strait reopens and supply disruptions subside, investors expect further gains in non-US currencies, even if major central banks scale back plans for additional interest-rate increases.

Meanwhile, global financial markets extended gains on Friday amid growing speculation that the US and Iran could sign a memorandum of understanding in Geneva this weekend to ease tensions in the Persian Gulf.

However, analysts at Macquarie cautioned that significant obstacles remain and questioned whether reported terms would be acceptable to Washington.

Macquarie said optimism increased after US President Donald Trump said planned military strikes against Iran had been canceled and suggested that broad outlines of a peace agreement had been approved, though not finalized.

Subsequent reports cited Iranian officials describing a deal as "likely" and noting "progress" in negotiations.

Iran's semi-official Mehr News Agency published what it described as key elements of Tehran's proposed framework, including an immediate ceasefire, respect for Iranian sovereignty, reopening of the Strait of Hormuz under Iranian arrangements, withdrawal of US forces, suspension of sanctions, release of frozen Iranian assets, and an economic reconstruction package valued at more than $300 billion.

Notably absent from the reported terms were commitments related to Iran's uranium enrichment activities, ballistic missile program, support for regional armed groups, or international verification measures.

Analysts said those omissions could complicate any effort to secure support from US lawmakers and foreign partners.

Bloomberg reported that Geneva is being considered as a venue for signing an MoU during the June 15-17 G7 summit period, while Axios reported that US military aircraft had departed for Europe in preparation for a potential ceremony involving Vice President JD Vance.

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