Global oil markets are drawing heavily on stored barrels and strategic reserves to offset supply disruptions linked to geopolitical tensions, as persistent disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz keep traders on edge, Kpler strategists said in a note on Thursday.
Michelle Brouhard, head of Policy and Geopolitical Risk at Kpler, said global crude inventories on land, excluding the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve, along with crude and refined products held on water, are declining at about 2 million barrels per day.
The figures include visible Chinese crude stocks but exclude global onshore refined product inventories, suggesting continued reliance on stored oil to offset tight supply.
Kpler said that the drawdowns come as coordinated releases from global strategic reserves continue to cushion the market. The current release program totals about 400 million barrels, including about 172 million barrels from the US SPR.
US SPR withdrawals began in April, with around 70 million barrels already delivered to the market.
The latest data from the Energy Information Administration for the week ending June 5 indicates SPR releases are contributing more than 1 million barrels per day of additional supply, helping offset disruptions from reduced Gulf exports.
Kpler analysts said the combination of inventory draws and emergency stock releases has so far helped prevent a spike in prices, even as the ongoing Middle East conflict has raised concerns about potential risks to energy flows through the Strait of Hormuz.
However, market participants said that the buffer provided by inventories and strategic stocks may be temporary, particularly if supply disruptions persist or escalate.
The latest data from Kpler indicate that, while markets are adapting amid stock drawdowns, the pace of inventory depletion highlights the system's limited flexibility if disruptions deepen.