Energy executives struck a bullish tone on oil and gas markets, citing stronger crude prices, robust refining margins and growing demand for liquefied natural gas, even as geopolitical risks and the expansion of artificial intelligence infrastructure, RBC Capital Markets said on Tuesday.
RBC strategists said executives across the supply chain were planning for a higher-for-longer oil price environment, supported by tighter global supplies, inventory drawdowns, and concerns over lost production.
Crude producers said market conditions had improved markedly compared with a year ago, with several companies indicating greater confidence in accelerating expansion projects while continuing to focus on operational efficiencies.
Baseline price assumptions have shifted materially higher over the year, the analysts said, adding that producers see a tighter market persisting for longer despite ongoing volatility.
Oil refiners also maintained a constructive outlook, pointing to strong margins and resilient demand, particularly in Europe.
RBC analysts said that there was little evidence of significant fuel demand destruction despite elevated crude prices. Refiners, instead, are maximizing output through measures such as delaying maintenance and increasing jet fuel yields.
Though energy executives avoided direct commentary on ongoing conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine, RBC said companies are acknowledging that current market conditions could require rebuilding strategic petroleum inventories to higher levels than before recent disruptions.
On the natural gas front, executives said geopolitical uncertainty was reinforcing the appeal of supply security, boosting long-term prospects for LNG exporters in North America and other producing regions.
Companies said importers appeared willing to absorb higher costs to secure reliable supplies, as producers in the US, Canada and Australia are positioning to meet growing LNG demand from Asia.
RBC said that the closure of the Strait of Hormuz has heightened concerns about supply security and accelerated buyers' efforts to diversify sourcing.
Meanwhile, energy executives are increasingly confident in forecasts of natural gas demand from artificial intelligence-driven data centers.
RBC estimates that AI-related data centers could consume between 6 billion cubic feet per day and 7 Bcf/d of US natural gas, adding to the significant surge in demand expected from LNG export projects.
The majority of LNG companies expect large technology firms to continue to favor natural gas-fired power generation because of its reliability and availability. Despite the upbeat outlook, industry executives said supply chain constraints could pose a significant challenge.
Though AI and data centers dominated many natural gas discussions at the RBC Global Energy, Power & Infrastructure Conference, energy executives agreed that LNG exports remain the largest driver of global gas demand growth through at least the next decade.