Crude prices could remain around $100 per barrel through the end of 2027 as supply risks, depleted inventories and impaired refining capacity offset a sharp slowdown in global demand growth, Enverus Intelligence Research strategists said in a note on Tuesday.
Enverus analysts maintained Brent crude forecast at $100/bbl for the remainder of 2026 and all of 2027, even as it cut its estimate for 2027 oil-demand growth to 500,000 barrels per day from 2.5 million b/d previously.
The outlook assumes flows through the Strait of Hormuz remain constrained through the end of 2027, and Russian refinery capacity stays impaired. Enverus expects global oil demand to contract by 1.4 million b/d in 2026 as high product prices and limited refining capacity weigh on consumption.
"You can't print barrels," said Al Salazar, the report's author and a director at Enverus. The consultancy said that even with weaker demand, the market faces constrained crude supply, low inventories and limited refining capacity, supporting the $100 Brent forecast.
Enverus estimates oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz to average about 8 million b/d through the end of 2026, rising to just under 10 million b/d in 2027. The consultancy said that compares with a prewar level of about 20 million b/d.
Rerouting capacity is projected to increase to 6.4 million b/d next year from about 4 million b/d currently, providing only a partial offset to the disruption.
The market's remaining supply buffers are also limited. Strategic Petroleum Reserve releases are on pace to end by October, leaving inventories more exposed to additional disruptions, the consultancy said.
China is one of the few sources of additional demand, according to Enverus. Chinese crude imports rose 22% from the previous month to 8.45 million b/d in July, although that was still 24% below year-earlier levels.
The research firm expects the gap between Chinese imports and the 11.5 million b/d prewar level to narrow to about 500,000 b/d in Q4.
Elsewhere, Enverus said oil-market buffers are nearly exhausted. The consultancy said that means further supply outages in 2027 could force demand destruction to balance the market rather than being absorbed by inventories or spare supply.
The forecast comes as refining disruptions remain a major constraint on petroleum-product markets.
Enverus, in a separate report, said about 7 million b/d of Middle Eastern and Russian refining capacity was damaged or constrained, excluding routine maintenance.
The consultancy projected that about half of severely damaged capacity could remain offline well into Q4 2027 even under an optimistic scenario in which hostilities end immediately.