Oil Extends Decline as US-Iran Peace Deal Eases Hormuz Risks, TPH Says

Crude prices remained under pressure after the US-Iran peace deal entered into force, easing concerns over disruptions to energy flows via the Strait of Hormuz even as geopolitical tensions across the Middle East remain unresolved, TPH Energy strategists said on Thursday.

Jeff LeBlanc, an analyst at TPH Energy, said Brent crude has fallen about 10% since last Friday, after President Trump and Iranian President Pezeshkian signed the agreement electronically.

The deal takes effect immediately and commits Iran to reopening shipping lanes and clearing mines in the Strait of Hormuz, a strategic waterway for global energy supplies.

LeBlanc said the signing of the deal has improved sentiment in oil markets, though uncertainty remains over how quickly tanker traffic will normalize.

Though reports indicate some Saudi crude tankers have resumed passage, shipping companies have previously cautioned that rebuilding confidence in the Strait could take longer than the 30-day transition period outlined in the memorandum.

The agreement stipulates that no transit fees will be charged during the interim period. However, TPH said Oman, Iran, and other regional stakeholders are expected to negotiate a permanent framework, with Iranian officials indicating they intend to levy service and management charges.

LeBlanc said pending US waivers on Iranian crude exports are also expected to boost supply, adding to downward pressure on prices.

However, despite the easing of immediate risks to maritime trade, the broader geopolitical backdrop remains fragile. Tensions in Lebanon remain elevated, with Iran blaming the US for Israel's withdrawal from the region, while Israel continues to argue that military operations are essential to its security.

TPH said focus is now shifting to negotiations over Iran's nuclear program and international sanctions, scheduled to begin on Friday. Historical precedent suggests talks could drag on for months.

Trump has signaled that the current 60-day negotiating window could be extended, but has also warned that military action could resume if a final agreement fails to meet US expectations.

TPH said that the prospect of additional Iranian oil returning to global markets and the reopening of the Hormuz has shifted the focus from supply disruption risks to the durability of the peace deal, with traders weighing whether the agreement marks a lasting de-escalation or a pause in hostilities.

US Oil Update: Futures Steady as Markets Await US-Iran Deal Signing

Crude oil futures were little changed in after-hours trading on Wednesday, as markets awaited the signing of a US-Iran framework agreement that could restore oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz amid mounting concerns about oversupply in 2027.Front-month West Texas Intermediate crude futures fell 0.5% to $75.65 per barrel, while Brent futures were down 0.3% to $78.70/bbl.US commercial crude oil inventories decreased by 8.3 million barrels to 418.2 mmbbls in the week ended June 12, the Energy Information Administration said in its weekly report on Wednesday. The EIA said crude inventories are now about 6% below the five-year average for this time of year.Global inventories remain relatively tight, with US crude stockpiles continuing to decline, said Soojin Kim, research analyst at MUFG, while projecting that Brent would remain in the $80-90/bbl range in the near term.On Wednesday, President Trump defended the US-Iran framework agreement, saying it could get signed as soon as Thursday. Earlier in the day, Trump had said that a memorandum of understanding with Iran was not final, and that he could resume a bombing campaign if he did not like it or if Iran did not "behave.""It's a memorandum of understanding. If it doesn't get done in 60 days, that's alright, we go back to bombing," Trump said in a media address at the G7 summit in France. The interim peace deal to end the conflict is set to extend the ceasefire for 60 days and reopen the Hormuz to all commercial vessels.The draft peace agreement reportedly envisions the rapid reopening of the Strait of Hormuz after a months-long closure that sent global energy prices soaring, and immediate sanctions waivers for Iranian oil.On the supply side, the International Energy Agency said the oil market will enter a significant supply overhang in 2027, with global supply set to surge by 8 million barrels per day and demand rising by 2 million b/d.Kpler strategists said that over 90 million barrels of stranded non-Iranian crude and about 70 million barrels of Iranian oil could return to the market as the Hormuz reopens and US restrictions are eased.The International Energy Agency slashed its outlook for oil demand in 2026, forecasting that global consumption will contract by about 1.1 million b/d, a downgrade of about 700,000 b/d from its previous assessment.Oil demand in Q2 is projected to be about 5 million b/d lower than the previous year, led by declines of 1.6 million b/d in China and 1.4 million b/d in OECD countries.The US Federal Reserve held rates steady on Wednesday. Lower interest rates could boost oil demand by reducing borrowing costs for consumers and businesses.

Trump Says Iran Deal Nears Completion, Sees Strait of Hormuz Shipping Recovery

US President Donald Trump said Wednesday that Iran is prepared to finalize a nuclear agreement and that a reopening of the Strait of Hormuz could help stabilize global energy markets.Trump made the remarks during a press conference at the G7 Summit in France.Trump signaled that the Memorandum of Understanding may be signed soon, with nuclear negotiations set to continue for another 60-day period."If it doesn't get done in 60 days, that's alright, we go back to bombing," Trump said, adding, "... if they don't honor that, we'll probably go back to bombing them until they honor it."Trump expressed hope that military action would not be necessary.On the Strait of Hormuz, Trump said shipping activity has already started recovering. "Maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has already increased very substantially, and a normal flow of energy will resume in the coming days...," Trump said."On Sunday, we reached an agreement with Iran that achieves everything we set out to accomplish... ending the current conflict, reopening the Strait of Hormuz, and preventing Iran from ever obtaining a nuclear weapon," Trump said.Trump said Iran appears ready to move forward with the agreement. "We're going to most likely sign a deal, they want to sign a deal and they've been acting very appropriately," Trump said.Trump said the agreement would require Iran to permanently forgo nuclear weapons and related activities. He added that Tehran agreed it would "neither produce nor procure a nuclear weapon."He added that technical discussions on the removal of all enriched material stockpiles in Iran will begin "immediately."Trump also noted the decline in oil prices as a key benefit of easing tensions in the Middle East."Oil is dropping like it has never dropped before," Trump said, adding that prices had fallen by as much as $7 to $8 per barrel as concerns about regional disruptions eased.Answering a question about a proposed US$300 billion fund and whether the US would provide financial support to Iran, Trump said Washington would not contribute money directly and that any benefits would depend on Tehran adhering to the agreement. "Only if they're doing things right," Trump said.Trump said the US continues to hold Iranian assets that were frozen under previous restrictions. "We have taken a lot of their money, and we have their money ... It's not our money, it's their money, and we froze it at a certain point in time," Trump said, adding, "I guess we're going to have to give it back."On Israel, Trump a copy of the MoU had been sent over to Israel as well."We have a little dispute over in Lebanon," Trump said, adding, "but I feel very bad for Lebanon."

Oil Extends Decline as US-Iran Peace Deal Eases Hormuz Risks, TPH Says

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US Oil Update: Futures Steady as Markets Await US-Iran Deal Signing
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US President Donald Trump said Wednesday that Iran is prepared to finalize a nuclear agreement and that a reopening of the Strait of Hormuz could help stabilize global energy markets.Trump made the remarks during a press conference at the G7 Summit in France.Trump signaled that the Memorandum of Understanding may be signed soon, with nuclear negotiations set to continue for another 60-day period."If it doesn't get done in 60 days, that's alright, we go back to bombing," Trump said, adding, "... if they don't honor that, we'll probably go back to bombing them until they honor it."Trump expressed hope that military action would not be necessary.On the Strait of Hormuz, Trump said shipping activity has already started recovering. "Maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has already increased very substantially, and a normal flow of energy will resume in the coming days...," Trump said."On Sunday, we reached an agreement with Iran that achieves everything we set out to accomplish... ending the current conflict, reopening the Strait of Hormuz, and preventing Iran from ever obtaining a nuclear weapon," Trump said.Trump said Iran appears ready to move forward with the agreement. "We're going to most likely sign a deal, they want to sign a deal and they've been acting very appropriately," Trump said.Trump said the agreement would require Iran to permanently forgo nuclear weapons and related activities. He added that Tehran agreed it would "neither produce nor procure a nuclear weapon."He added that technical discussions on the removal of all enriched material stockpiles in Iran will begin "immediately."Trump also noted the decline in oil prices as a key benefit of easing tensions in the Middle East."Oil is dropping like it has never dropped before," Trump said, adding that prices had fallen by as much as $7 to $8 per barrel as concerns about regional disruptions eased.Answering a question about a proposed US$300 billion fund and whether the US would provide financial support to Iran, Trump said Washington would not contribute money directly and that any benefits would depend on Tehran adhering to the agreement. "Only if they're doing things right," Trump said.Trump said the US continues to hold Iranian assets that were frozen under previous restrictions. "We have taken a lot of their money, and we have their money ... It's not our money, it's their money, and we froze it at a certain point in time," Trump said, adding, "I guess we're going to have to give it back."On Israel, Trump a copy of the MoU had been sent over to Israel as well."We have a little dispute over in Lebanon," Trump said, adding, "but I feel very bad for Lebanon."