Hydrocarbon production on the Norwegian Continental Shelf is expected to stay high through the late 2020s before declining, and more exploration is necessary in both well-explored and underexplored areas to halt the decline, according to a study published by the Norwegian Offshore Directorate on Tuesday.
The NCS has an estimated 7 billion standard cubic meters of oil equivalent of remaining resources, with half of them yet to be discovered, according to the Resource Report 2026 made public on Tuesday.
"Production is expected to remain high until the end of the 2020s and then decline. To halt the decline, more exploration is needed, both in well-explored areas and in underexplored areas," the study said.
"In addition, more investments must be made in fields, discoveries, infrastructure and technology development. A lack of investment will lead to a rapid dismantling of the petroleum industry."
Three separate scenarios analyzed by the study for total oil and gas production through 2050 from the NCS show a decline, with high exploration, investment and technology development expected to keep production at about 65% of today's level in 2050, while the low scenario sees it fall to about 5%.
The net present value difference between the high and low scenarios is estimated at 3,200 billion Norwegian kroner ($346.1 billion) at the same oil and gas prices. This rises to 8,300 billion kroner when the high scenario uses a high price and the low scenario uses a low price, the study said.
Between 2000 and 2025, about 730 exploration wells were drilled, with 370 classified as discoveries. The study said various exploration activities on the NCS are estimated to have nearly 4,000 billion kroner in present net value.
Last year, companies submitted around 145 projects to improve oil recovery, equivalent to an estimated 280 million scm of oil equivalent. In 2025, over 60% of oil production came from wells drilled after 2020.
"The High North has the largest remaining resource potential on the NCS. Large areas of the Barents Sea are still underexplored, and significant areas have not been opened for petroleum activities," the study said.
"Without increased gas export capacity, large portions of the resources in the Barents Sea may remain unexploited, and exploration will remain unattractive to the companies," it added.
Since 2013, the number of companies operating on the NCS has declined by over 50%, as major international firms have exited and Norwegian companies like Equinor, Aker BP and Var Energi have led the projects, the study added.