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Natural Gas Update: European Futures Rise, Eyes on Middle East Diplomacy

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European natural gas futures rallied on Tuesday after falling to a two-week low during the previous session, as tensions and uncertainties lingered despite signs of diplomatic progress between the US and Iran.

Front-month Dutch TTF futures rose 1.68% to 74.480 euros ($85.25) per megawatt-hour, while British NBP futures were up 1.59% to 184.480 British pence ($2.46) per therm. Front-month Henry Hub futures were up 0.14%, at $2.840 per million British thermal units.

The moves come ahead of a potential meeting between US President Donald Trump and Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian in New York this week, even as Iran's Revolutionary Guard called for the region to be freed from the "vile and criminal presence" of the US and Israel, according to Al Jazeera.

Traffic through the strategically crucial Strait of Hormuz, which accounted for one-fifth of global LNG flows, dropped to just 9 transits on Monday, according to data from ShipFinder.

European gas inventories stood at 69.94% of capacity, compared to 81.61% a year ago, according to Gas Infrastructure Europe. They were also below the five-year average for this time, at 85.6%, according to the Swiss Federal Office of Energy.

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Oil & Energy

Update: UK Reportedly Weighs Providing Military Support to Saudi Arabia Against Houthi Attack

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Oil & Energy

Higher Hormuz Oil Flows May Offset Supply Risks From Russia-Ukraine Strikes, Macquarie Says

Russia-Ukraine energy strikes show little sign of easing, but rising Hormuz oil flows could ease supply pressure and slow inventory draws, Macquarie energy strategist Walt Chancellor said in a Monday note.US President Donald Trump said Russia and Ukraine had agreed last Monday to stop attacking energy targets, briefly sending crude prices lower. Chancellor said subsequent strikes, including attacks near Moscow, offered little evidence of a lasting agreement.Chancellor said Ukraine's attacks on energy infrastructure highlight the strategic value of such assets, pointing to the Caspian Pipeline Consortium terminal in Novorossiysk. The terminal handles mostly Kazakh crude, while US companies, particularly Chevron (CVX), have invested heavily in Kazakhstan's upstream sector.Markets should not dismiss US statements on Middle East oil supplies as dark transits limit visibility into regional flows, Chancellor said. Hormuz shipments have risen above 8.5 million barrels per day since Aug. 30 and may have reached 10 million b/d by Sept. 18.He said additional flows could eventually halt global inventory draws, with 2 million b/d from Fujairah and another 2 million b/d to 4 million b/d potentially moving through the Red Sea.The higher oil flows also come with tighter shipping conditions, as Hormuz and Red Sea routes, longer voyages, US exports, Panama restrictions, and sanctions lift VLCC rates and vessel values while widening regional oil price differences, Chancellor said.

$CVX
Oil & Energy

Oil Update: Crude Tumbles as Trump Signals Iran Talks, Saudi Exports Recover

Crude futures tumbled in after-hours trading on Monday, as markets weighed the prospect of peace talks between the US and Iran amid signs that Saudi Arabia was recovering some crude exports despite the widening Middle East conflict.Front-month West Texas Intermediate futures tumbled 4.8% to $95.48 per barrel, while Brent futures fell 3.6% to $100.16/bbl. Dubai 1st Line Futures were down 3.1% to $90.92/bbl.ING strategists said that the pullback comes despite ongoing geopolitical risks and continued concerns over global oil supply disruptions.President Trump reportedly halted strikes against Yemen's Houthis for now, while indicating that he was open to meeting Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian during the UN General Assembly.On the supply front, Saudi Aramco loaded about 14 million barrels of crude on seven supertankers inside the Mideast Gulf on Sunday, according to media reports. The Gulf state has reportedly moved about 2.9 million barrels per day of crude through the Hormuz over the past six days, up from just 700,000 b/d in August.The US Central Command also said crude and LNG flows through Hormuz have reached a six-month high over the past two weeks, with key transit lanes clear of mines.Gelber & Associates strategists said Saudi exports have recovered to above 4 million b/d in September from 2.4 million b/d in August, with flows through the Strait of Hormuz averaging 2.9 million b/d during the past six days.