FINWIRES · TerminalLIVE
FINWIRES

Natural Gas Market Expected to Tighten in H2 2026, UBS Says

By

Natural gas prices are expected to remain relatively stable over the longer term as rising US production keeps pace with growing demand from liquefied natural gas exports and electricity generation tied to artificial intelligence and data centers, UBS analysts said in a Thursday note.

UBS forecasts Henry Hub natural gas prices will average $3.75 per million British thermal units in both 2026 and 2027.

Over the longer term, the bank expects prices to trade in the range of $3.50/MMBtu to $4/MMBtu.

The bank expects the US natural gas market to shift from a slight oversupply to a deficit during the second half of 2026.

Storage in the Lower 48 states was about 0.4 billion cubic feet per day above the five-year average during the first half of 2026, but UBS expects market balances to tighten as the year progresses.

Demand growth is projected to come primarily from expanding LNG export capacity and rising power generation needs, including increased electricity consumption from AI applications and data center development. UBS expects higher Lower 48 production to largely offset that demand growth.

Natural gas has underperformed broader commodities and crude oil over the past year. Front-month natural gas futures are up about 2.5% year-to-date, compared with a 15.1% gain for the Goldman Sachs Commodity Index and a 28.4% increase for front-month WTI crude oil.

During 2025, front-month natural gas prices traded between $2.95 and $5.29/MMBtu, ending the year up about 1%, compared with a flat performance for the commodity index and a 20% decline in WTI crude.

UBS said several factors could influence its outlook. On the supply side, a faster-than-expected increase in drilling activity by exploration and production companies could weigh on prices.

Associated natural gas output will also depend on oil prices and the pace of new pipeline capacity in the Permian Basin, while the remaining drilling inventory in the Haynesville shale could affect future production.

On the demand side, weather remains a significant variable, with residential and commercial consumption capable of shifting by roughly 2 Bcf/d annually.

The bank also cited potential delays in LNG export projects, changes in global LNG market conditions that affect export utilization rates, and uncertainty around the timing of new power generation capacity, electricity demand growth, and increased adoption of renewable energy and battery storage.

Related Articles

Commodities

PJM Issues Multiple Alerts as Heat Wave Drives Higher Power Demand

PJM Interconnection issued multiple alerts on Wednesday to address increased power demand amid higher temperatures from this week's heat wave, the regional transmission operator said in a statement.PJM said that a Maximum Generation Alert and a Load Management Alert are currently in place for Wednesday and Thursday. The earlier-issued Hot Weather Alert remains in effect for its serviceable region until Friday.PJM said it served a preliminary hourly integrated peak of 151,105 megawatts on Tuesday.In its Forecasted Peak Load update, the operator said it estimates an FPL of 164,078 MW on Wednesday, 160,227 MW on Thursday, and 150,981 MW on Friday."During a recent prolonged heat wave, PJM reached an all-time peak load estimated at 168,158 MW on July 2, according to preliminary figures that factor in Demand Response programs that serve to suppress electricity demand," PJM said.Its previous peak record was 165,563 MW, set on Aug. 2, 2006.Additionally, PJM said it had received approval from the US Department of Energy for a combined emergency order, to be effective July 15 through July 21.The move aims to provide "temporary relief from environmental permit restrictions for generating units and/or to direct backup generation resources to operate, if required at all," PJM said.

Commodities

US Oil Update: Futures Settle Higher as US-Iran Conflict Intensifies, Inventories Tighten

Crude oil futures settled higher in after-hours trading on Wednesday as the US intensified strikes against Iranian targets, raising concerns over potential crude supply disruptions, while a smaller-than-expected draw in US crude inventories provided additional support.Front-month West Texas Intermediate crude futures gained 1.3% to $80.34 per barrel, while Brent futures were up 1.3% to $85.85/bbl.Gelber & Associates said that the market appears caught between improving sentiment and a technically important resistance zone, with traders looking for a catalyst strong enough to determine whether the rebound has further room to run.US commercial crude oil inventories decreased by 1.7 million barrels to 409.7 mmbbls in the week ended July 10, the Energy Information Administration said in its weekly report on Wednesday, less than Investing.com's forecast of a 1.8-mmbbl draw.Crude inventories are now about 6% below the five-year average for this time of year, the agency said.On Wednesday, the US launched a fresh round of attacks on Iran, hours after President Trump said military strikes would intensify next week if Tehran does not cooperate in peace negotiations.US Central Command said in a social media post on X that it had begun launching a wave of strikes against Iran at 6 a.m. ET.Centcom said attacks were completed at 7:30 a.m. ET and the precision munitions were launched against Iran's coastal defense systems and cruise missile storage and launch sites on Greater Tunb Island.On Wednesday, Trump said he would intensify the attacks against Iran until strikes on commercial vessels in the Hormuz stop. Centcom launched a second wave of attacks at 3 p.m. ET on Wednesday to further degrade Iranian military capabilities used to threaten vessel flow through the Strait og Hormuz.Earlier, the US military carried out strikes late Tuesday as well, targeting dozens of military assets near the Hormuz and along the country's coastline in a seven-hour operation.Meanwhile, Iran, in response, has launched a wave of attacks on multiple Gulf countries, and Kuwait is bearing the brunt of the military strikes as Tehran steps up its assault on US allies in the Gulf region after an interim peace agreement with Washington collapsed.Soojin Kim, a research analyst at MUFG, said that with shipping through the Strait of Hormuz still heavily constrained and the conflict expanding across the region, markets are increasingly pricing in the risk of a prolonged supply disruption.Commercial shipping activity in the Strait continues despite mounting security risks and a renewed US naval blockade targeting Iranian ports. The latest data from Kpler showed 21 confirmed crossings through the Strait of Hormuz on July 14, marking a modest increase from the previous day.On Tuesday, the US Treasury Department imposed new sanctions on an Iranian shipping network that Washington accused of helping to evade previous sanctions on oil sales and other activities.Treasury's Office of Foreign Assets said the measures imposed on the network of Mohammad Hossein Shamkhani build on sanctions the US issued in April and last year. The US has now sanctioned over 200 individuals, entities, and vessels operating under Shamkhani.

Commodities

US Natural Gas Update: Prices Edge Up on Hot Weather Ahead of Inventory Data

US natural gas futures inched higher in after-hours trade on Wednesday as forecasts for above-normal temperatures across much of the country supported expectations for stronger air-conditioning demand and increased gas-fired power generation.The front-month Henry Hub contract and the continuous contract both gained 0.59% to trade at $2.921 per million British thermal units.The Commodity Weather Group said forecasts turned hotter, with above-average temperatures expected across most of the northern US through July 19, reinforcing expectations for elevated cooling demand.Analysts at Gelber & Associates said although prices were supported by strong power-sector demand driven by persistent heat, ongoing maintenance at LNG export facilities and robust domestic production continued to cap gains, keeping prices below the key $3.00/MMBtu level."The move higher looks more like stabilization than a decisive shift in momentum," Gelber & Associates said, noting that traders are still "waiting for a stronger catalyst from weather or Thursday's storage report before buying into a larger rebound."The market's focus has now shifted to Thursday's US Energy Information Administration weekly storage report.Gelber & Associates expects a storage injection of about 35 billion cubic feet. It said storage levels remain a headwind for prices, with inventories continuing to sit above the five-year average following last week's larger-than-expected injection.Total lower 48 gas demand rose to 83.1 Bcf per day, up 2.2 Bcf/d on the day and 4.1% above year-ago levels. According to Celsius Energy, power burn totaled 47.5 Bcf/d on July 14, up 1.2 Bcf/d from the previous day but 1.5 Bcf/d below the same day last year. For the week ended Tuesday, power burn averaged 45.0 Bcf/d, down 2.3 Bcf/d from the comparable period a year earlier.Estimated net gas flows to US LNG export terminals held steady at 17.8 Bcf/d on Wednesday, according to Barchart citing BNEF data, though volumes were down 3.3% from a week earlier.The decline reflects maintenance at Freeport LNG, which began on July 10 and is scheduled to continue through the end of August.On the production side, lower 48 dry gas output was estimated at 111.2 Bcf/d on Wednesday, down 0.9 Bcf/d from Tuesday but up 3.2% from a year earlier.