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Oil & Energy
US Oil Update: Crude Extends Slide as US-Iran Peace Prospects Weigh on Market
Crude oil futures fell in after-hours trading on Wednesday, after reports that the US and Iran are close to an agreement to end the Middle East conflict, fueling optimism that the Strait of Hormuz may soon reopen to global trade.Front-month West Texas Intermediate crude futures retreated by 5.93% to $96.21 per barrel, while Brent futures dropped by 7.05% to $102.59/bbl."Tighter US crude inventories and ongoing Middle East supply risks continue to support prices despite improving sentiment around diplomacy," said Soojin Kim, research analyst at MUFG.US crude and fuel inventories continued to draw down last week, with the latest data from the Energy Information Administration showing that crude oil inventories decreased by 2.3 million barrels to 457.2 mmbbls.Crude oil input to refineries dropped by 42,000 barrels per day from the previous week to average about 16 mmb/d in the week ending May 1, the EIA said, adding that crude oil production dropped by 13,000 b/d to 13.6 mmb/d.On Wednesday, Iran said it was reviewing a US peace proposal expected to end the conflict, as President Trump said "Great Progress" has been made on a final agreement.Trump sounded more optimistic about the chances of a peace deal. Trump said the US would pause its efforts to escort ships through the Hormuz, as White House officials reportedly believe Washington is nearing a one-page, 14-point memorandum of understanding to end the conflict.Earlier in the day, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio told reporters at the White House that "Operation Epic Fury is concluded," 66 days after the outbreak of the conflict. "We achieved the objectives of that operation," he said.Pakistan, the mediator in the US-Iran talks, said the two sides were closing in on a one-page memorandum of understanding, according to media reports.ING strategists said a deal that normalises oil flows through Hormuz is crucial, with about 13 million b/d of disrupted supply largely offset by declining inventory.However, Rystad Energy strategists said even if an agreement is reached, the impact on actual oil flows would be slower and more conditional than current price action suggests."A deal announcement would move futures further immediately, in fact even the potential of a deal is already triggering a decline in oil prices. However, the physical market does not run on political timelines," said Paola Rodriguez-Masiu, Rystad's chief oil analyst.On the supply front, Venezuelan crude exports climbed to a seven-month high of just over 1.05 million barrels per day in April, more than double from January levels, as a revamped licensing framework and easing trade restrictions supported a broader recovery in flows.Kpler said the rebound was driven by stronger demand from traditional buyers, with the US importing about 400,000 b/d and India taking 384,000 b/d.
Oil & Energy
Market Chatter: Iran Signals Shipping Support in Hormuz After US Pauses Operation
Iran said Wednesday that its ports remain fully ready to support commercial shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz and nearby regional waters, according to Iran's official news agency, Islamic Republic News Agency.Iran's Ports and Maritime Organization issued an official message to commercial vessels present in the Strait of Hormuz and in regional waters, IRNA reported.The PMO said that Iran can provide maritime services, technical support, and medical assistance to commercial vessels operating in the Strait of Hormuz, according to IRNA News.Progress in negotiations between Washington and Tehran prompted US President Donald Trump to pause the military's "Project Freedom" operation to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.Iran's Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the PMO did not immediately respond to' request for comment.(Market Chatter news is derived from conversations with market professionals globally. This information is believed to be from reliable sources but may include rumor and speculation. Accuracy is not guaranteed.)
Oil & Energy
Update: Trump Says Iran Peace Deal 'Very Possible'; Tehran Reportedly Reviews US Hormuz Proposal
(Updates with additional comments by Trump in the headline and paragraphs 1-4.)US President Donald Trump, in fresh remarks on Wednesday, said the US and Iran had "very good talks" in the last 44 hours and that a deal was "very possible."The White House, in response to' request for comment, shared a video clip of Trump speaking about the status of the ongoing negotiations."We'll see if we get there. They can't have nuclear weapons. It's very simple... We have to get what we have to get. If we don't do that, we'll have to go a big step further...," Trump said, adding that Iran wanted to make a deal."We've had very good talks over the last 44 hours, and it's very possible that we'll make a deal," he said.Earlier in the day, speaking at an event ahead of Mother's Day, commemorating the mothers of military personnel, Trump maintained that talks with Iran were "going very smoothly," adding that negotiations remain under US control.The US President said talks were going well, reiterating optimism about a potential peace deal. "... we're doing very well in Iran. It's going very smoothly, and we'll see what happens. They want to make a deal, they want to negotiate."He added that the US was dealing with "people that want to make a deal very much, and we'll see whether or not they can make a deal that's satisfactory to us."He added that the US maritime blockade in the Strait of Hormuz was "unbelievable.""It's like a wall of steel nobody goes through. In particular, the Iranians are not getting anything through one way or the other, so they're out of business," he said.Trump said that whether or not Iran agrees to the deal, he expected progress. "And we'll see whether or not they are agreeing, and if they don't agree, they'll end up agreeing shortly thereafter," he said.In a Truth Social post earlier on Wednesday, Trump warned of an escalation in military activity if Iran rejected the agreement."Assuming Iran agrees to give what has been agreed to... Epic Fury will be at an end, and the highly effective blockade will allow the Hormuz Strait to be open to all, including Iran," Trump posted.He warned of military consequences if Iran rejected the deal. "If they don't agree, the bombing starts, and it will be, sadly, at a much higher level and intensity than it was before."Iran reviewed a US proposal that could reopen the Strait of Hormuz and halt nearly 10 weeks of conflict, multiple news outlets reported Wednesday.Iran is reportedly reviewing a US memorandum that would gradually reopen Hormuz and ease the American blockade on Iranian ports if Tehran accepts the proposal. The proposal also includes sanctions relief and a temporary halt to Iran's uranium enrichment activity while broader nuclear negotiations continue.Iran is reportedly expected to respond through its mediator, Pakistan, within two days, according to media reports.Iran's semi-official Iranian Students' News Agency said the US proposal included unrealistic and excessive conditions that Iranian authorities strongly rejected in recent days.Meanwhile, Iran's Foreign Minister Seyed Abbas Araghchi said he held constructive talks with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi in Beijing and welcomed China's role in supporting regional peace.Wang urged Iran to continue negotiations and avoid renewed fighting, the report added."Both sides reaffirmed Iran's right to uphold national sovereignty and national dignity," Araghchi said in a post on X, adding that "The Iranian side appreciated China's four-point proposal for maintaining and promoting regional peace and stability."China remains Iran's largest oil customer, purchasing roughly 90% of Iranian crude exports, though Beijing has largely avoided direct involvement since the conflict escalated.Chinese President Xi Jinping is scheduled to meet US President Donald Trump in Beijing on May 14-15, with Trump saying Tuesday that the Iran conflict will be on the agenda.Trump reportedly told PBS News that Washington could relax sanctions on Iran if both sides finalize an agreement, potentially easing concerns that Chinese banks will purchase Iranian oil."The only viable solution in the Strait of Hormuz is clear: a permanent end to the war, the lifting of the maritime blockade, and the restoration of normal passage," Iran's mission to the United Nations said in a post on X on Wednesday.The mission also alleged that the US was advancing a politically motivated United Nations Security Council resolution under the banner of freedom of navigation, while urging member states to reject or avoid supporting the proposal, according to the post.Meanwhile, France and the UK prepared a maritime coalition to escort commercial tankers through Hormuz if Iran accepts the US peace framework, according to media reports.A French official said Wednesday that partner vessels will soon join France's Charles de Gaulle aircraft carrier in the Red Sea, a deployment that signals the coalition's readiness to protect shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.An official in French President Emmanuel Macron's office said Macron recently held talks with both US President Donald Trump and Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian, while stressing that France does not consider itself part of the conflict.The US Central Command on Wednesday posted on X that military forces operating in the Gulf of Oman enforced blockade measures by disabling an Iranian-flagged unladen oil tanker attempting to sail toward an Iranian port at 9 am ET on Tuesday.The vessel, M/T Hasna, was en route to an Iranian port on the Gulf of Oman and did not stop despite multiple warnings.Centcom said US forces disabled the tanker's rudder by firing several rounds fired from the USS Abraham Lincoln carrier.So far, 52 commercial vessels have been directed to turn around or return to port in order to comply, Centcom said.Oil prices dropped in midday trade amid geopolitical developments, with Brent falling 7.45% to $101.68 per barrel, WTI declining 6.54% to $95.58/bbl, and Murban dropping by 7.62% to $97.90/bbl.