Monash IVF Group (ASX:MVF) is facing tough conditions and is still forecast to lose 250 basis points of Australian market share in fiscal 2026 to end the period with a 20% share, Jefferies said in a Friday note.
The company cut its fiscal 2026 underlying net profit after tax guidance to between AU$17 million and AU$18 million from AU$20 million in a move that partly reflects "the somewhat discretionary nature" of in vitro fertilization (IVF), the equity research firm said.
Jefferies now expects Australian IVF market volume to shrink 3.5%, compared with a previous forecast for a 1% contraction.
"We do not expect a sudden turnaround in IVF volumes but highlight previous corporate interest in IVF if an acquirer is willing to take a longer-term view given favorable industry dynamics," the investment firm said.
Jefferies raised its estimates for Monash's fiscal 2026 fixed costs as a percentage of revenue to about 12% from 11%, and variable costs as a percentage of revenue to over 11%.
It maintained a buy rating on the company but lowered its price target to AU$0.80 from AU$0.90.
Monash IVF Group's shares jumped 3% in recent Friday trade.