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MISO Coal Power Margins Outpaced Natural Gas in Early 2026, EIA Says

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US coal-fired power plants in MISO remained more profitable than natural gas facilities during the first four months of 2026, the Energy Information Administration said Wednesday.

Coal generation economics in the Midcontinent Independent System Operator strengthened as dark spreads continued to exceed spark spreads through early 2026.

Dark spreads measure the difference between coal-fired generation fuel costs and wholesale electricity prices, while spark spreads track profitability for natural gas-fired generation relative to fuel expenses.

The profitability gap between coal and natural gas generation widened sharply during Winter Storm Fern in January, when the dark-spark spreads climbed to $530 per megawatt-hour.

Dark spreads in MISO started staying above spark spreads in late 2024. During 2025, dark spreads more than doubled with a 111% increase, while spark spreads posted a smaller 18% rise.

MISO electricity prices climbed 44% from 2024 to 2025, but coal prices increased only 3% during the same period, pushing dark spreads higher to $23/MWh from $11/MWh.

Higher natural gas costs offset much of the benefit from rising electricity prices as natural gas prices jumped 63% from 2024 to 2025, while spark spreads increased only to $14/MWh from $12/MWh.

During Winter Storm Fern, MISO power prices moved above $260/MWh between Jan. 26 and Jan. 28, even though electricity demand stayed 11% lower than comparable weekdays before the storm.

Strong heating demand during the storm lifted natural gas prices sharply to $549/MWh on Jan. 27 from $25/MWh on Jan. 20, while coal prices remained mostly unchanged because coal shipments typically require nearly one month for delivery.

In the first four months of 2026, dark spreads averaged $28/MWh, marking a 39% increase from the same period in 2025, while spark spreads averaged $9/MWh, up 15% over the year, the Energy Information Administration said.

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