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Middle East Traffic Patterns Diverge as Shipping Security Risks Stay Elevated

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Security risks in key Middle Eastern chokepoints remain elevated, shaped by diverging traffic trends in the Strait of Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb, fresh confirmed vessel attacks, and military deployments.

The latest data from MarineTraffic showed 42 confirmed vessel crossings through the Hormuz and the Bab el-Mandeb on Aug. 4.

"Strait of Hormuz crossings fell to 8 on 4 August, down 20% day on day from 10," according to MarineTraffic's update on Wednesday.

Most of the vessels exited the Middle East Gulf and routing concentrated around the Iranian Unilateral Scheme, which accounted for five of the total eight crossings. The remaining three transits were "Route Undetermined," with no Hormuz Traffic Separator Scheme crossings reported.

MarineTraffic said that its latest daily dataset for Aug. 4 showed five "All Rest" vessels and three shadow fleet vessels, with no sanctioned crossings recorded.

Bab el-Mandeb crossings, in contrast, rose to 34 on Aug. 4, from 25 recorded the previous day. However, dark transit activity was up in the Aug. 4 dataset.

"Directionally, the latest flow was slightly weighted toward vessels entering the Red Sea, with 18 entries and 16 exits," according to MarineTraffic.

The International Maritime Organization's daily Strait of Hormuz incident tracker recorded an additional confirmed attack off the Omani coast on Aug. 3. These incidents bring the total number of confirmed maritime security incidents in the region to 64 as of Aug. 4.

The IMO tracker provides a daily log of verified strikes on ships attempting to transit the Strait of Hormuz since the conflict began, with the earliest incident recorded on March 1.

The outlook deteriorated further following the confirmed attack, adding to growing concerns over commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz.

The US Central Command said US forces had assisted over 1,000 vessels in safely transiting the Hormuz over the past three months despite what it described as "unwarranted Iranian aggression."

Centcom said in an X post on Wednesday that it had redirected 48 commercial vessels, disabled two vessels and boarded two others as of Aug. 5, as part of efforts to safeguard freedom of navigation through the strategic waterway.

Meanwhile, the UK Maritime Trade Operations issued two new incident reports involving vessels off the Yemeni coast.

UKMTO said a vessel about 9 nautical miles southwest of Al Mukha was attacked by an uncrewed surface vessel, causing a fire on board. Separately, the master of a tanker reported hearing a loud explosion close to the vessel about 95 nautical miles southeast of Aden.

The incidents came as Yemen's Houthis claimed responsibility for another attack on Saudi shipping, saying the group had struck a Saudi-flagged oil tanker in the northern Red Sea off Yanbu.

Houthi spokesperson Yahya Saree said the movement had targeted a total of eight Saudi oil tankers since announcing the blockade on July 22 and had forced 29 Saudi tankers to turn back in the Red and Arabian Seas.

Saree said the group intends to expand operations into the northern Red Sea after claiming success in tightening its blockade around Bab el-Mandeb.

The Iran-aligned militant group plans to expand operations into the northern Red Sea after alleging that Saudi tankers had begun rerouting away from the Bab el-Mandeb Strait.

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