Middle East refinery runs remain well below pre-war levels at 7.3 million barrels per day, with export disruptions and refinery damage delaying a full recovery until at least Q2 2027, Kpler said in a Thursday note.
The region's refinery runs compare with 9.9 million b/d in February 2026, with lower output reflecting both physical damage and limited product movements through the Strait of Hormuz.
Runs began recovering in May, but renewed regional tensions, the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz and disruptions around Bab el-Mandeb have interrupted that progress, Kpler said.
The supply impact extends beyond refinery output, with the Middle East losing about 4 million b/d of refined product supply from pre-conflict levels. About 2.5 million b/d came from lower refinery runs.
The remaining roughly 1.5 million b/d of lost supply came mainly from liquefied petroleum gas and natural gas liquids-derived naphtha, highlighting the broader effect of the conflict on regional product markets.
Kpler expects shipping disruptions to persist through the rest of 2026, with a gradual reopening starting in late Q4. Improved Hormuz transit could trigger a quick initial recovery as operating refineries increase runs.
Physical damage will slow recovery after the initial rebound, with Kpler expecting logistics-driven improvement starting in Q4 2026 and a full return to pre-war throughput no earlier than Q2 2027 as repairs progress.
Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and Bahrain face both refinery damage and large output losses, while the UAE and Iran face greater constraints due to difficulties moving refined products through export routes.
Saudi refinery runs have fallen to about 2.2 million b/d in August. The 400,000 b/d Jizan refinery remains offline, while Saudi Aramco TotalEnergies Refining and Petrochemical Company's 200,000 b/d crude distillation unit and related units remain under maintenance.
Kpler expects SATORP to begin returning around mid-to-late Q4, helping Saudi runs reach about 2.45 million b/d by Q4. A stronger recovery should follow in Q1 2027 as damaged capacity returns to service.
Kuwait's refinery runs are estimated at about 570,000 b/d in Q3 2026, as export limits on products and damage at Mina Al-Ahmadi and Mina Abdullah keep the country's three major refineries operating at reduced utilization.
Kuwaiti crude production could recover toward 700,000 b/d by Q4 as export conditions improve, followed by a stronger increase in Q2 2027 as damaged capacity returns, according to Kpler.
UAE refinery runs are around 700,000 b/d in Q3 2026, with earlier Ruwais disruptions largely resolved. Kpler expects output to reach about 800,000 b/d by Q4 and rise further in Q1 2027 as shipping improves.
Bahrain's refinery runs remain at 100,000-120,000 b/d, compared with 420,000 b/d pre-war, after Sitra refinery damage and export restrictions. Kpler expects 150,000 b/d by Q4 and a return to pre-war levels by Q3 2027.
Qatar's downstream supply remains constrained after damage to Pearl GTL Train 2 and the idling of Ras Laffan refinery LR2. Pearl GTL faces repairs through Q2 2027, while the LR1 complex operates at reduced rates.
Iranian refinery runs fell to about 2.2 million b/d from 2.45 million b/d pre-war, as unit disruptions and limited exports of naphtha and fuel oil weigh on output. Kpler expects 2.3 million b/d by Q4 and further gains in Q1 2027.
Oman remains an exception, with refinery runs near 400,000 b/d, as its location outside the Strait of Hormuz supports operations. Duqm refinery has shifted to domestic crude supplies after reduced access to Kuwaiti crude, according to the note.