Middle East crude flows remain about 4.5 million barrels per day below pre-conflict levels despite a recovery in exports via alternative routes, according to Rohit Rathod, a senior oil market analyst at Vortexa.
In an interview with, Rathod said waterborne flows out of the Middle East have recovered over the past six months, but not entirely through the Strait of Hormuz. Some UAE barrels have been redirected through Fujairah, while Saudi Arabia has moved Arab Light crude through Yanbu using the East-West pipeline.
"That recovery has taken place, but we are still give or take,... short by say around 4.5 mmbbl/d of crude compared to the Jan-Feb levels before this conflict picked up," Rathod said.
The assessment comes after US Energy Secretary Chris Wright said on X on Aug. 11 that the seven-day average for oil leaving the Strait of Hormuz was "up to almost 9 million b/d," that total flows, including newly upgraded pipelines and export facilities, were averaging about 15 mmbbl/d, and that over 20 million barrels left the Arabian Gulf region on Aug. 11 alone.
On the magnitude of the flows cited by Wright, Rathod said the two estimates may not be directly comparable because they appear to cover different categories of flows.
"I don't know where he is getting that number, but I don't think it's that high," Rathod said.
Vortexa's weekly average was about 4.2 mmbbl/d for crude, condensate and clean products, excluding liquefied petroleum gas and liquefied natural gas, according to Rathod.
He said Wright may have been combining vessel transits through Hormuz with alternative loadings from Yanbu and other export facilities.
"Where he is coming from is basically that 14 million is probably the transits via Hormuz by vessels," Rathod said, adding that Wright may also have included Yanbu and other loadings.
Wright followed up with an X post on Aug. 12, saying the Energy Department, working with the US military, maintains the "best available data" on oil leaving the Arabian Gulf, and arguing that private trackers undercount vessel traffic through the Strait of Hormuz because some ships transit the waterway covertly.
Rathod acknowledged that a meaningful share of current Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb transits are happening dark, with vessels switching off their automatic identification systems to avoid being targeted.
Despite the recovery in Middle Eastern flows, alternative export routes are increasingly being tested by security risks and capacity constraints.
Before the conflict, Yanbu crude loadings were about 1.4 mmbbl/d to 1.5 mmbbl/d, Rathod said. After Saudi Arabia began redirecting barrels away from the Strait of Hormuz, loadings rose to over 4 mmbbl/d, even approaching 5 mmbbl/d a few times.
However, loadings have since fallen to about 3 mmbbl/d, with the latest week at about 2.5 mmbbl/d, as the Houthi threat around the Bab el-Mandeb, the chokepoint on the Red Sea route that is the primary alternative to a direct Hormuz transit, has made that route increasingly risky. "Those alternate routes are also under pressure because of the Houthi threat," Rathod said.
Saudi Arabia has responded by moving more barrels through Egypt, with loadings at Sidi Kerir on the Mediterranean side of the Sumed pipeline rising to more than 2 mmbbl/d, according to Rathod.
"Even that Sumed pipeline is now running at full capacity," he said.
The rerouting of Middle Eastern crude is also tightening global tanker availability as vessels remain engaged for longer periods, reducing their ability to return to other loading regions.
A voyage from Yanbu to South Korea that previously took roughly 22 to 25 days can now require almost an additional month if a vessel avoids the Bab el-Mandeb and travels around the Cape of Good Hope instead, Rathod said.
"It keeps the vessels engaged for longer, so that reduces supply for loading from somewhere else," he said.
The longer voyages are also increasing vessel ton-miles and bunker fuel demand, while benefiting shipowners and operators through longer vessel employment, Rathod said.
Despite the security risks, flows through the Strait of Hormuz have not returned to the "trickle" levels seen around the end of May and early June, Rathod said.
"We have consistent flows coming out. It's just that they are dark flows," he said, adding that even vessels carrying non-Iranian and nonsanctioned cargoes have been switching off their automatic identification systems during transits to reduce the risk of being targeted.
The Atlantic Basin has meanwhile helped provide marginal barrels to the global market, with crude exports from the US Gulf Coast, Brazil, Venezuela, Argentina, Guyana and West Africa increasing during April-June, Rathod said.
"All these combined have managed to keep the global market somewhat supplied with marginal barrels," he said.
The US has emerged as an important source of additional supply, although strong refining margins are now encouraging domestic refiners to compete with exporters for crude.
US crude exports were at record levels during April-June, with the Strategic Petroleum Reserve release also helping keep domestic refiners supplied. SPR barrels themselves were not the main driver of exports, with a maximum of around 400,000-450,000 bbl/d of SPR crude exported during some periods in April and May, Rathod said.
Instead, the releases kept domestic refiners supplied and freed up other US crude. This included medium-sour North American grades such as Mars and Poseidon, which saw differentials under pressure from the SPR release, prompting movement into export markets, particularly to Northeast Asian buyers such as South Korea and Japan.
US crude exports have since slowed as refiners run at strong utilization rates, but Rathod expects exports to begin recovering in the second half of August and into September.
Ballast vessels are moving toward the US Gulf Coast and are expected to arrive in late August and early September, while arbitrage economics to Europe remain open, he said.
"We might see exports picking up, but again, it remains to be seen. This is not new supply that is coming to the market. They will have to compete with basically US refiners," Rathod said. US crude exports could still move back above 4 mmbbl/d in September, he said.
The ability of Atlantic Basin producers and alternative Middle Eastern routes to keep balancing the market could become more significant if Asian crude demand strengthens.
China has been drawing down its oil inventories since around May, Rathod said, and could reach its five-year average inventory level around October or November if the trend continues.
That would leave China needing to return to the international market for additional barrels, potentially pitting it against refiners in South Korea, Japan and India.
Rathod said the timing could extend into early 2027 if China has additional underground inventories that are not captured by Vortexa's data.
"So, giving them the leeway, maybe they have more in underground stocks and they can draw down for a few more months, but those few more months probably end in Q1 2027, and then you have even the Chinese going in to secure barrels for themselves," he said.
Asian buyers are already taking part in dark ship-to-ship transfers offshore Oman and Fujairah, Rathod said, with China, South Korea and Japan among the buyers taking those cargoes.
If Middle East disruptions persist and Asian refiners begin rebuilding inventories simultaneously, the market's current ability to balance barrels through alternative routes could come under much greater pressure.
"So at that point, I think the arb essentially won't matter anymore, and it will be a scramble for barrels," Rathod said.
On crude prices, Rathod said they are likely to stay bullish. However, he said it was worth comparing the current situation to a similar event, the Russia-Ukraine conflict.
With the Middle East disruption, which Rathod described as "a much bigger supply shock to the world," the analyst said prices have not reacted as drastically. "Yes, they are high, but we are not beyond $100 per barrel, which is surprising given the scenario right now," he said.
He added that markets are currently in steep backwardation, where prompt supply is tight and much of the market sentiment is riding on hopes of a peace deal.