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Marriott, Hilton Second-Quarter RevPAR Could Top Guidance, UBS Says

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Marriott, Hilton Second-Quarter RevPAR Could Top Guidance, UBS Says

Marriott International (MAR) and Hilton Worldwide's (HLT) second-quarter revenue per available room results could exceed the lodging giants' expectations, aided by FIFA World Cup boost, UBS Securities said in a report e-mailed Friday.

The US is co-hosting the men's football tournament with Canada and Mexico. Revenue per available room, or RevPAR, is a key performance indicator in the hospitality industry.

Quarter-to-date through June 27 trends, weighted by segment, could indicate that Marriott and Hilton's US RevPAR is trending up 5.3%, which UBS said was above both companies' respective guidance ranges.

Choice Hotels International's (CHH) US RevPAR is trending up 4% in the second quarter and is 2.9% so far this year, according to the brokerage. While the company did not provide second-quarter RevPAR outlook, its year-to-date trend is better than its full-year global estimates for the metric, UBS said.

"With RevPAR continuing to come in higher, it suggests there is likely upside to guidance for at least some lodging names," UBS analysts, including Robin Farley, said in a note to clients.

The brokerage continues to prefer Hilton over Marriott and Choice Hotels, given its "stronger unit growth," Farley said. UBS outlined scenarios that could prompt Hilton and Marriott to raise guidance for the second half of the year.

"The outperformance of US RevPAR in (the second quarter) continues to be driven by higher-end tiers, as well as a world cup benefit," Farley said. "Luxury US RevPAR continues to accelerate ahead of broader US RevPAR trends."

Overall lodging industry revPAR growth outside of the World Cup was likely up 5.7% in the second quarter, compared with 3.8% growth in the linking three-month period, according to the note.

"With non-host markets up 7.9% in the first 17 days of the tournament -- well above trend -- this suggests there is underlying demand driving the (second-quarter) revPAR growth, not just the World Cup," Farley said.

Price: $378.07, Change: $+5.60, Percent Change: +1.50%

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