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Markets Hit by The Escalating Conflict in The Middle East, Says Scotiabank

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A risk-off tone is marking the start of a fresh week, said Scotiabank.

Oil is up by about US$4/barrel, noted the bank. Higher inflation conerns are driving sovereign bond yields higher across all markets.

Stocks are mixed with United States and Canadian futures a touch higher, while European cash markets are gently lower after bigger selloffs across Asian benchmarks, stated Scotiabank.

The US dollar (USD) is slightly firmer against several majors except the yen (JPY), while South Korea's (KRW) won is the strongest performer after the government took steps to lean against currency weakness that are at least temporarily effective, pointed out the bank.

Some of all of this is the lagging Asian market reaction to Friday's nonfarm payrolls in the U.S., added Scotiabank. Some of it may be in anticipation of the week's developments.

Much of it is driven by escalating conflict in the Middle East after Israel attacked Beirut, Iran fired retaliatory missiles at Israel and then Israel retaliated against targets in Iran. This followed earlier clashes between the U.S. and Iran.

Clearly, there is no peace in sight and despite stomping around on social media, President Donald Trump has absolutely no control over the circumstances, according to the bank. The combined effects are driving U.S. Treasury yields up by 2bps to 4bps in a bear flattener move and minor US dollar strength.

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