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Market Chatter: Ryanair Sees Winter Fares Rising as Pricing Shows Signs of Recovery

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Ryanair signaled that airfares could rise this winter after a modest recovery in pricing, with the outlook increasingly tied to oil prices, Reuters reported Thursday, citing the airline's CEO, Michael O'Leary.

Average fares have shown a "slight upturn" since July, O'Leary said Thursday, adding that pricing for the October-to-March winter period is now more likely to be flat or slightly higher rather than decline as previously forecasted.

Crude prices have climbed above $100 per barrel this week as attacks intensified in the ongoing Middle East conflict, increasing pressure on airlines already grappling with elevated operating costs.

O'Leary said Ryanair could see a "significant uplift" in airfares if oil prices remain elevated into next year, as less-hedged airlines may be forced to cut capacity or raise prices. Ryanair did not immediately respond to a request for comment from.

(Market Chatter news is derived from conversations with market professionals globally. This information is believed to be from reliable sources but may include rumor and speculation. Accuracy is not guaranteed.)

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Oil & Energy

US Oil Update: Futures Gain as Ship Attacks Escalate US-Iran Conflict, Threaten Supply

Crude futures settled higher in after-hours trading on Wednesday as a new wave of attacks on vessels in and around the Strait of Hormuz heightened fears that the escalating US-Iran conflict will further disrupt crude supplies from the Persian Gulf.Front-month West Texas Intermediate futures gained 3.8% to $96.61 per barrel, while Brent futures surged 3.8% to $101.60/bbl.Saxo Bank strategists said that the tit-for-tat attacks between the US and Iran point to continued supply tightness and an elevated risk of further price gains.President Trump said Wednesday that energy prices elevated due to the ongoing Middle East conflict will not come down until after the midterm elections. "Right after the election, oil prices are going to be tumbling downward," Trump told reporters during a press gaggle at Joint Base Andrews.Iran's Islamic Revolution Guards Corps said Wednesday that Tehran will respond to any attack with a far greater number of strikes, noting that if the US hits two or three Iranian targets, its navy would respond by hitting 20 targets.The US Central Command said Tuesday that its forces destroyed five Iranian crude oil tankers in retaliation for attempted attacks on an American warship.Centcom said that the US warship successfully evaded the attempted Iranian attacks and continued to patrol regional waters.Iranian media said that Tehran, in response, targeted two US warships and eight oil tankers in the Persian Gulf, marking the biggest wave of tit-for-tat attacks on vessels in the strategic waterway by both sides since the onset of the Middle East conflict in February.The United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations said on Wednesday that a tanker was struck by a drone in Iraqi territorial waters. The UKMTO also reported that several merchant vessels in the Gulf had been hit by disabling fire overnight.The maritime security agency said a vessel at anchorage off Dubai was listing, possibly taking on water after being struck by a projectile.The escalation reinforces the view that "we are still some way from a restart in talks," ING strategists said, adding that, in the meantime, the market is likely to continue to price in a sizeable risk premium.Meanwhile, the developments come as Yemen's Iran-backed Houthis target energy facilities in Saudi Arabia.On Tuesday, Saudi Arabia's Foreign Affairs Ministry said Yemen's Houthis targeted civilian and economic assets in the cities of Abha, Khamis Mushait, Jazan and Najran. Over 70 civilians were injured in the attacks, the ministry said.Soojin Kim, research analyst at MUFG, said that with military action targeting tankers and energy infrastructure, the threat of deeper disruption to Gulf exports risks tightening markets further and pushing Brent back toward triple-digit levels.On the supply front, US distillate fuel inventories are forecast to fall below 100 million barrels in September and remain below the five-year low through much of 2027, the Energy Information Administration said.The agency said that tight global supplies of distillate fuels such as diesel have pushed up domestic prices and bolstered US exporters to increase shipments.Tightness in the global distillate market has raised domestic prices and incentivized US exporters to increase distillate exports, the EIA said in its September 2026 Short-Term Energy Outlook released Wednesday.Meanwhile, data from the American Petroleum Institute revealed Wednesday that US crude oil inventories dropped by 300,000 barrels in the week ended Sep. 4, following a 2.6-million-bbl draw the previous week, according to a Bloomberg-compiled survey.The oil market now awaits the US Energy Information Administration's petroleum inventory report, scheduled for release on Thursday.

Oil & Energy

Trump Says Oil Prices Above $100/bbl Could Persist Through Midterms, US Not Seeking Iran Talks

US President Donald Trump said Wednesday oil prices above $100 per barrel could persist through the midterm elections, extending his forecast for lower crude prices beyond the vote.President Trump made the remarks during a press gaggle with reporters at Joint Base Andrews."I think it's going to take a little bit longer than the midterm [elections]," Trump said."...right after the election, oil prices are going to be tumbling downward", Trump said, adding, "I think for gasoline we'll get them below $2 a gallon."Trump said Iran was trying to prolong the war to influence the US midterm elections and weaken his party's political position."I think the war will end immediately after the election because they can't hold out any longer," Trump said.He said Iran's economy is under severe pressure, citing 300% inflation, a weakened currency and unpaid soldiers."We control the strait and lots of other things," Trump said, adding that US forces had taken out nine Iranian ships and warning that more attacks would follow.Trump said Iran could still pursue talks with the US, but he signaled no active effort toward negotiations, saying, "a negotiation could possibly happen, but it's not something we're looking at."

Oil & Energy

Market Chatter: Iran Vows to Escalate as Attacks Intensify

Iran is prepared for a prolonged war with the US and will intensify counterstrikes if Washington continues attacking its territory and infrastructure, Bloomberg reported on Wednesday, citing a senior Iranian official.The official reportedly said Tehran would not yield to a US naval blockade or attacks on its oil tankers, despite worsening economic pressures. Iran has rebuilt military capabilities since the war's most intense phase in April and retains enough missiles for an extended conflict.The comments came after renewed strikes by both sides, including attacks on energy and commercial vessels. Brent crude rose above $100 per barrel as tensions around the Strait of Hormuz persisted.The Iranian Foreign Ministry did not immediately respond to a request for comment from.(Market Chatter news is derived from conversations with market professionals globally. This information is believed to be from reliable sources but may include rumor and speculation. Accuracy is not guaranteed.)