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Market Chatter: OPEC+ Set to Boost July Oil Output Despite Hormuz Disruptions

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Seven key OPEC+ countries are expected to approve a modest production increase for July when they meet next month, even as the Middle East conflict continues to disrupt regional supply lines, Reuters reported on Thursday, citing industry sources.

The producer group is likely to raise its collective production target by about 188,000 barrels per day, the report said, though no final agreement has been reached.

Though OPEC+ has held output steady through Q1 2026, the producer group has incrementally raised targets each month since April.

However, the pace of monthly supply increases has slowed since May, following the high-profile UAE's departure from the cartel.

Though the UAE's exit from OPEC+ diminishes the group's total market share and structural leverage over global crude prices, it may streamline decision-making.

has reached out to OPEC for a comment.

OPEC+ oil production dropped to 33.19 million b/d in April from 42.77 million in February, OPEC figures show. Output by Gulf producers fell by 9.9 million b/d.

The ongoing conflict in the Middle East comes at a time when several members with spare capacity, including Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and Kuwait, face logistical constraints, limiting the group's ability to respond to market conditions.

Separately, the group-wide 2 million b/d supply cut agreed in 2022 remains in place through the end of 2026, including a 160,000-b/d allocation previously attributed to the UAE. Two additional OPEC+ meetings scheduled for June 7 are not expected to result in any policy changes.

(Market Chatter news is derived from conversations with market professionals globally. This information is believed to be from reliable sources but may include rumor and speculation. Accuracy is not guaranteed.)

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