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Market Chatter: Industry Estimates Middle East Oil Shipments at About Two-Thirds of Pre-war Levels

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Middle Eastern crude exports, including oil shipped by vessels with their automatic identification system transponders switched off, or dark crossings, have reached about two-thirds of their pre-Iran war levels as per industry consensus, according to a Reuters analysis of industry data published Wednesday.

Vortexa projected total Gulf exports in August of around 15 million barrels per day, about 10 mmbbl/d from pre-war levels and added that around 8 mmbbl/d of crude and refined products moved through the Strait of Hormuz on a seven-day moving-average basis, the report said.

In a note on Sept. 2, Goldman Sachs (GS) estimated total Gulf flows at around 15 million to 16 million barrels per day, including dark crossings. On certain days in early September, Gulf crude shipments touched up to 14 million b/d boosted by secret tanker flows and Saudi Red Sea exports that avoid Hormuz, the report said, citing Kpler and an industry source.

From June to August, dark shipments flows totaled at least 500 million barrels, worth at least $40 billion, assuming an average oil price of $80 per barrel and at least 6 million barrels, or six large tankers, a day over 90 days, the report said. While the dark shipments have significantly increased supplies, the related uncertainty has raised the risk premium for global oil prices, it added.

Meanwhile, global freight tanker rates are rising to significant record levels with little sign of easing, an indication of growing pressure on oil markets with the prolonged Persian Gulf conflict forcing traders, shipowners, producers and buyers to find increasingly complex alternatives, Bloomberg reported Thursday.

While supertanker earnings for the benchmark Middle East-to-China route have reached a record nearly $800,000 a day, very large crude carriers are being offered at a record $29.5 million lump sum, or nearly $15 per barrel for the US Gulf to Asia route, excluding additional war-risk and delay fees, the report said.

Daily VLCC rates are expected to remain over $100,000 a day into next year, more than double the rarely exceeded historic levels of $45,000, the report said, citing Kpler.

(Market Chatter news is derived from conversations with market professionals globally. This information is believed to be from reliable sources but may include rumor and speculation. Accuracy is not guaranteed.)

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