Japan's auto industry will feel the weight of constrained supplies of aluminum and related alloy products due to the Middle East war through 2027, Nikkei Asia reported Wednesday.
Aluminum prices skyrocketed following the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and have remained above prewar levels, with benchmark aluminum futures in London priced at more than $3,600 per metric ton, the report said.
Iranian strikes on key smelters and input shortages for production facilities have also impacted output, which could lead to a loss of more than 3 million tons from the market in 2026, the report cited Wood Mackenzie senior research manager Uday Patel as saying.
Analysts expect the aluminum market to recover only after 2028, the report said.
Japan is the most reliant on the Middle East for aluminum and related alloys among the five largest importers of the metal, the report cited 2024 data from the UN Comtrade database as saying.
Premiums paid by Japanese companies in addition to the LME spot price for aluminum increased to $350 to $353 per ton for the April to June quarter, from $195 in the past quarter, according to the report.
The beverage sector is the largest aluminum consumer in Japan, while small and medium-sized companies in the auto and construction industries are also dependent on Middle East-sourced ones, the report cited a representative of the Japan Aluminum Association as saying.
The auto industry has been carrying out efforts to counter the supply constraints, including changing procurement across multiple routes, the report quoted Koji Sato, chairman of the Japan Automobile Manufacturers Association, as saying.
Cost pressure is also a main concern for major auto companies, with Mitsubishi Motors (TYO:7211), Toyota Motor (TYO:7203), and Nissan Motor (TYO:7201) all expecting hits in their earnings due to higher material costs, the report said.
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