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Market Chatter: Coal Market Tightens After Shanxi Accident, Indonesia Export Changes

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Coal prices could remain supported amid supply disruptions in China and Indonesia, alongside energy market volatility linked to the Iran conflict, according to a Reuters report on Tuesday.

After the Iran war disrupted traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, utilities in Japan and South Korea increased purchases of higher-quality coal as the availability of liquefied natural gas tightened.

The shift in buying helped lift Newcastle coal prices above $150 per metric ton, close to the strongest levels seen in nearly two years, the report said.

China and India had curbed demand for lower-grade Indonesian coal by relying on ample inventories and renewable generation, but a deadly mine accident in Shanxi has since tightened coal supply in China.

As domestic output tightens, China could import 27.8 million metric tons of thermal coal in June, up 27.6% from a year earlier, the report added, citing DBX Commodities Chief Executive Officer Alexandre Claude.

Supply concerns intensified further after Indonesia moved to place coal exports under a new state-owned entity, Danantara. Claude said shrinking inventories and constrained seaborne supply leave prices vulnerable to further gains.

Production from Indonesia's thermal coal sector fell 7% over the year during January through April, while exports could slide roughly 11% this year to 446 million tons if current trends continue, McCloskey's Scott Dendy said, according to the report.

Growing electricity demand across Southeast Asia is adding pressure to coal markets. Hot weather has lifted consumption in Vietnam and the Philippines, while Thailand may increase imports as tighter gas supplies limit alternatives, the report added, citing I-Energy Resources Director Vasudev Pamnani.

Rystad Energy estimates the fallout from the Iran conflict alone could add another 70 million tons of coal demand across Asia-Pacific markets in 2026, according to a June research note cited by the report.

At the same time, Argus expects global coal supply to fall 5.7% next year to 985 million tons. Analysts also expect El Nino weather conditions to strengthen electricity demand and support additional coal consumption.

Drought-like conditions in northern China could reduce hydropower generation, while hotter weather may increase air-conditioning demand, Nanjing University associate professor Peng Qihua said. Lower hydropower output typically boosts coal consumption in China, the report said.

Supply-side pressures are also affecting major exporters. McCloskey's Scott Dendy said Russian coal output has weakened as a stronger rouble and higher transportation costs leave roughly two-thirds of producers operating at a loss.

Although Australia could increase exports this year, higher mining expenses and constrained diesel supplies may limit growth. Meanwhile, Indian buyers are showing greater interest in South African cargoes, but DBX expects vessel clearance and shipping delays to weigh on June exports.

(Market Chatter news is derived from conversations with market professionals globally. This information is believed to be from reliable sources but may include rumor and speculation. Accuracy is not guaranteed.)

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