Mainfreight (NZE:MFT) reached a trough in the decline in net profit before tax in fiscal 2026, with forecasts showing growth of 11% in fiscal 2027, Jarden said in a Thursday note.
The company delivered earnings growth of around NZ$8 million year over year in the second half of fiscal 2026. The investment firm raised its fiscal 2028 net profit before tax forecast by 1%.
The changes in the forecast reflect a review of underlying momentum while remaining cautious around economic uncertainty, given fuel price volatility and the impact on consumer finances, Jarden said. Since a peak in fiscal 2023, Mainfreight's rolling 12-month norm net profit before tax declined by around NZ$230 million.
Tariff uncertainty and short trading weeks impacted the first 17 weeks trading in fiscal 2026 by around NZ$10 million, Jarden estimated. Meanwhile, its trading update for the first around 17 weeks of fiscal 2027 is expected to show earnings growth of around NZ$15 million to NZ$20 million year over year.
The investment firm retained its overweight rating on Mainfreight and raised the price target to NZ$73 from AU$71.