Lottery's (ASX:TLC) second consecutive half of jackpot weakness will likely result in around AU$340 million in revenue impact for fiscal 2026 and see turnover of around AU$680 million below theoretical, Jarden said in a Thursday note.
The investment firm lowered its fiscal 2026 and fiscal 2027 earnings-per-share forecasts by 1%. It forecast a fiscal 2026 final dividend of AU$0.08 per share.
Digital penetration is likely to remain suppressed, providing further pressure on variable contribution, while cost discipline should provide an offset, Jarden said. The second half redundancy costs of around AU$10 million should deliver commensurate ongoing labor savings into fiscal 2027, it added.
The investment firm retained its overweight rating and price target of AU$5.65 on Lottery.
Lottery's shares added 1% in recent Friday trade.