Europe's crude market faces tighter supply as Libya's outages deepen and Saudi Arabia delays pipeline-linked flows, potentially removing up to 1 million barrels per day, Kpler said in a Thursday note.
Light Mediterranean grades such as CPC, Saharan Blend and Azeri Light could remain supported as disruptions reduce barrels available to Europe and the Mediterranean, the report said.
Uncertainty over Saudi Arabia's pipeline restart has pressured crude prices, but Kpler expects a 1-2 million b/d global deficit in coming months, supporting a sustained market floor.
Libya's El Sharara field, which produces about 300,000 b/d, faces a potential two-to-three-week shutdown after pipeline disruptions cut flows to the Zawia export terminal, Kpler said.
Saudi Arabia has told European term buyers they will receive no crude in October, removing about 700,000 b/d from normal flows to northwest Europe and the Mediterranean. A potential return of Saudi crude flows from Yanbu could pressure European and Mediterranean crude differentials into October as supply recovers, Kpler said.