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Japan Inflation Rate Edges Higher, But Still Modest in March

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Japan's consumer price index (CPI) edged higher in March, boosted by food and energy costs, but remained relatively moderate, reported the Statistics Bureau on Friday.

The nation's widely quoted CPI-core, which strips out fresh food bills, rose 1.8% in March on year, up from 1.6% in February, but still below the 2% annual inflation target of the Bank of Japan.

Japan's CPI-core-core, which also strips out energy bills, rose 2.4% in March, modestly easing from a 2.5% rise in March.

The nation's headline CPI rose 1.5% in March on year, accelerating from February's near four-year low gain of 1.3% on year, added the Statistics Bureau.

Housing rent increases remained modest in Japan, rising 0.7% on year in March, while electricity bills fell 8% on year, the latter decline due to government subsidies.

Rice, which in mid-2025 has nearly doubled in price, rose 6.8% on year in March, and fell 2.5% from February.

The Bank of Japan will hold a policy session next week and is expected to reveal on Tuesday what adjustments will be made to its key policy rate, which has been kept at 0.75% since December of last year.

Japan's central bankers have indicated intentions to lift rates but also to keep labor markets tight enough that real wages rise, thus boosting consumption and the overall economy.

"We still see an April hike possible if the BoJ gives priority to preventing inflation expectations from accelerating," said ING Think, an arm of the Dutch investment house. "We expect further inflation acceleration in the coming months. On top of rising global energy prices, the weak Japanese yen should add more pressure on domestic prices."

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