The 60-day window under the Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding expired on Aug. 17 without a deal, extension or active negotiations, leaving the Strait of Hormuz operating at a fraction of normal capacity, Kpler analyst Emmanuel Belostrino said in a Wednesday note.
The truce helped clear a backlog of stranded crude but failed to restore regular traffic through the chokepoint.
Kpler estimates about 374 million barrels of crude left the Middle East Gulf during the 60-day period. This translates to an average of 6.1 million barrels per day, almost three times the 2.3 million b/d pace recorded during the blockade before the MoU. That remained about 40% of the roughly 15 mmb/d that transited Hormuz in 2025.
Floating crude storage fell sharply, from 61 million barrels when the MoU was signed on June 17 to 16 million barrels within three weeks. But the broader system remained congested.
Crude on water inside the Gulf and Gulf of Oman stood at about 130 million barrels when the window closed, above the roughly 96 million barrels recorded at the start of the war.
Kpler said key provisions of the agreement failed early. The US oil waiver lasted only 20 days, the blockade lift 27 days, while Iran's commitment to clear mines was never completed.
Iran's own crude exports deteriorated toward the end of the window, with loadings falling from 893,000 b/d in July to 156,000 b/d through Aug. 17.
Final-week loadings of about 4.9 million b/d exceeded confirmed clearance of 2.3 million b/d, while ballast tanker arrivals into the Gulf fell to roughly two per day.
Kpler said the truce's early gains also came with a loss of shipping visibility. In the third week, 95% of barrels leaving the Gulf could be traced to their loading terminal. By the final week, 66% could not.
The southern Omani corridor, which peaked at 48 crossings in its second week, was effectively closed by the fourth week after attacks on vessels using it.
At expiry, Tehran asserted a permit-and-tolls regime for transit, while Washington rejected the claim and maintained convoy escorts and enforcement of the blockade.
Kpler estimates that the shortfall from normal Hormuz flows is roughly 550 million barrels of crude for the fourth quarter, so far offset by inventory draws and buffers accumulated during the truce that are expected to thin from September.