Increasing wind power deployment in Scotland after 2030, specifically the onshore kind, could slash energy system costs by 6% or 5 billion British pounds ($6.72 billion) per year between 2030 and 2050, according to a study by Aurora Energy Research.
The study, commissioned by the Scottish Onshore Wind Developers' Forum, analyzed the impact of a higher share of Scottish wind capacity onshore post 2030 on total system-costs, Aurora Energy Research said in its report published Tuesday.
The study compared a base case which was in line with UK's Clean Power Action Plan and Gate 2 capacity targets, with another scenario in which some planned Scottish offshore wind projects were instead changed to onshore projects after 2030.
"In the modelling, the onshore-priority pathway lowers average total system costs by around 6% between 2030 and 2050, approximately [5 billion pounds] a year relative to the base case, driven by a 21% reduction in policy costs and a 13% reduction in balancing costs," it said.
"The counterfactual still assumes a substantial Scottish offshore wind buildout, in line with market-consensus deployment expectations," the report said.
Less than 1 gigawatt of new onshore wind is likely to be added in Scotland between 2030 and 2035 as per current capacity allocations under the Clean Power Action Plan and Gate 2 connection reforms, the report said.