A Strait of Hormuz reopening may not spark a major Very Large Crude Carrier freight rally as rising vessel availability could quickly absorb additional cargo demand, according to Vortexa.
Vortexa said traders continue to debate whether renewed traffic through the strait could sharply lift VLCC rates, though limited deal activity west of Hormuz makes it difficult to assess current freight benchmarks.
The firm said vessel and cargo dynamics suggest any freight upside will depend on how quickly exports recover and how much tonnage remains available across key trading regions.
Regional oil infrastructure may require several months to return to normal operations, while Middle East Gulf crude inventories, excluding Iran, remain below seasonal averages recorded during the past five years, Vortexa said.
Cargo bookings could stretch over a wider timeframe than normal, helping to keep more vessels employed and supporting freight rates in the Gulf as well as Atlantic Basin markets, Vortexa said.
The consultancy said a near-term rate spike appears unlikely because crude tanker supply remains abundant. Ballast VLCCs continue moving toward the Middle East Gulf, increasing the pool of available ships.
VLCC numbers in the Pacific that are not sailing toward the Atlantic Basin remain close to pre-conflict norms, while vessel counts in East Asia continue to rise despite remaining below two-year averages, Vortexa said.
Vortexa based its analysis on a 10-year-old eco VLCC, comparing a diversion back to Ras Tanura against a Gulf of Mexico-to-Northeast Asia voyage. The calculation can vary by operator due to vessel efficiency, fuel costs, idle time and insurance premiums.
The study also examined how many Atlantic-bound VLCCs could economically return to the Middle East Gulf at various freight rates, offering a measure of the additional tanker supply that could re-enter the region.
The analysis found that vessels could still profitably divert to the Middle East Gulf at freight levels near $45 per metric ton, a 45% discount to current west-of-Hormuz rates and about $15 per metric ton above quoted east-of-Hormuz cargo rates.
At that $45/mt level, as many as 83 Atlantic-bound VLCCs could return to the Gulf if uncommitted. The number falls to 59 vessels at $42/mt, while only four ships near East Africa and India's west coast could justify diversion at $38/mt, according to Vortexa's analysis.