The Strait of Hormuz is no longer functioning as a simple open-or-closed chokepoint, with vessel movements through the key energy artery becoming increasingly fragmented, opaque, and difficult to verify, Kpler strategists said in a note on Thursday.
Ana Subasic, trade risk analyst at Kpler, said that though ships continue to transit the Hormuz, the more relevant risk question has shifted from access to assurance, whether voyages can be reliably observed, documented, and defended across commercial, insurance, and sanctions frameworks.
The latest data from Kpler showed a sharp structural decline in visible traffic since the onset of the Middle East conflict on Feb. 28. The data analytics firm said daily crossings dropped from 147 the day before the operation to 78 on Day 0, 33 on Day 1, 13 on Day 2, and just 6 by Day 3.
Over the first 12 days of the conflict, Kpler recorded 189 crossings, compared with 2,310 during the corresponding period of the June 2025 conflict, a drop of about 92%.
The disruption has persisted, with the US naval blockade of Iranian ports introduced in April effectively tightening passage conditions, leaving about 500 vessels trapped in the wider Middle East Gulf region.
However, the more consequential shift, Kpler analysts said, is not volume but verifiability. GNSS spoofing and AIS manipulation have eroded confidence in positional data, affecting thousands of vessels on peak days in March.
Kpler said as a result, port-call validation, voyage reconstruction, and sanctions screening are increasingly being challenged in real time.
The changing risk environment is also affecting commercial decision-making. Kpler said insurers, banks, and charterers are now grappling with disputes over whether transit behavior was legitimate, whether deviations were operationally justified, and whether voyages complied with sanctions regimes.
Sanctions exposure can crystallize during operational coordination with Iranian entities, as outlined in a May 1 advisory from US authorities, including clearance requests or escort arrangements, thereby further compressing the compliance window.
Simultaneously, traditional risk proxies are breaking down. Subasic said industry data suggest that over half of vessels transiting the waterway are over 20 years old, that many fall outside International Group P&I coverage, and that a significant share lack consistent classification.
Meanwhile, routing norms have eroded. Kpler said only 6.4% of observed crossings between Mar. 1 and May 19 followed the International Maritime Organization's Traffic Separation Scheme, underscoring how behavioral patterns have diverged from established navigation frameworks.
The long-standing assumption that AIS integrity, insurance coverage, and sanctions screening provide a sufficient compliance baseline is increasingly under strain.
Kpler analysts said the most reliable indicators of risk are becoming operational rather than diplomatic, extending waiting times before entry into the Strait, abnormal routing behavior, clustering around informal transit windows, and pre-emptive deviations in AIS patterns.