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Hormuz Oil Deficit Expected to Linger Into 2027 Warns ADNOC Chief

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Global oil flows through the blockaded Strait of Hormuz will not fully recover until the first or second quarter of 2027, even if the Middle East conflict ends immediately, according to the head of the UAE's state oil firm, Abu Dhabi National Oil Company.

Speaking at a live-streamed Atlantic Council event, Sultan Al Jaber, Managing Director and Group CEO of ADNOC, delivered a grim mid-term assessment for global energy networks, warning that a post-conflict operational recovery will face major delays.

The technical and logistical realities of restarting transit mean that it will require a minimum of four months just to restore shipping volumes to 80% of their pre-war capacity once a resolution is reached, Al Jaber said.

The maritime chokepoint, which normally facilitates the transit of roughly one-fifth of the world's daily petroleum supply, remains at a standstill with shippers unwilling to cross with the threat of Iranian attacks on any that do.

This blockade has restricted global supplies, triggering a prolonged surge in global energy benchmarks, compounding international inflationary pressures and heightening fears of a broader macroeconomic downturn.

Al Jaber strongly condemned the current maritime restrictions, labeling Iran's blockade of the international waterway a "dangerous precedent" that threatens the core principles of global freedom of navigation.

The alarming timeline outlined by the UAE's top energy official aligns closely with warnings issued by state-backed producers in neighboring countries.

Amin Nasser, Chief Executive of Saudi Arabian oil giant Aramco, previously cautioned that the international oil market might fail to achieve supply rebalancing before 2027 if the current security gridlock persists.

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