FINWIRES · TerminalLIVE
FINWIRES

Hormuz, Bab el-Mandeb Traffic Rises, but Remains Far Below Pre-War Average

By

Commercial vessel traffic through the Strait of Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb rose, but volumes remained well below normal levels as risks from attacks, surveillance activity and possible mines continued to weigh on shipping in the region, maritime data showed on Thursday.

The UK Maritime Trade Operations reported continued incidents involving Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, including the hailing of merchant vessels, unmanned aerial vehicle overflights and targeted surveillance.

However, UKMTO said there were no confirmed reports of attacks during the 48-hour reporting period ending Thursday.

The maritime security agency said that independent tracking data showed only single-digit numbers of tankers transiting the Strait of Hormuz in either direction, while the risk of drifting or of encountering uncharted mines remained a concern, with mine danger areas still active.

The latest data from MarineTraffic show that 14 vessels crossed the Hormuz on Aug. 11, with 11 using an Iranian unilateral transit scheme and none using the traditional traffic separation scheme.

Preliminary data show 78 transits during Aug. 3-9, down from 95 the week prior, according to a Thursday update from Lloyd's List Intelligence.

"Non-Iranian-linked traffic is above levels seen just after the collapse of the MoU, but a far cry from normal volumes," according to Lloyd's List.

The continued weakness in shipping traffic comes as the US military expands its maritime presence in the region.

The US Central Command launched Task Force Falcon Strike on Thursday, described as the first-ever multi-domain, multinational attack-drone unit.

It will deploy one-way attack drones above, on, and below the sea, staffed by the US and regional partners, Centcom said in a statement.

The launch follows Task Force Scorpion Strike, Centcom's first dedicated one-way attack-drone squadron in the Middle East, established nine months earlier.

Scorpion Strike marked the first-ever launch of an aerial attack drone from a US Navy warship last December, while one-way unmanned systems were also used during Operation Epic Fury and in July strikes on Iranian port facilities.

"Task Force Falcon Strike will expand on Scorpion Strike's success given the tremendous innovation happening among our regional allies and partners," said Admiral Brad Cooper, Centcom commander.

In the Bab el-Mandeb, ship traffic rose to 40 crossings on Aug. 11, the maritime analytics firm said, including vessels associated with dark, sanctioned and shadow fleets.

The increase comes despite continued warnings over attacks and the risks associated with transiting the southern Red Sea.

The UKMTO said that commercial traffic through the Red Sea and Bab el-Mandeb remained subdued, with no confirmed attacks or disruptions during the reporting period.

Traffic has remained subdued following the July 20 Houthi declaration of a naval blockade against Saudi Arabia, the agency said.

The security concerns around the Hormuz have been compounded by an oil spill affecting Oman's coastline.

TankerTrackers.com data indicates the spill may be linked to the Aug. 3 Iranian attack on the bulk carrier Minoan Pioneer, off the Omani coast.

The spill subsequently drifted across the Strait of Hormuz toward Iran, the maritime data-tracking platform said.

The incident adds an environmental dimension to the disruption at one of the world's key energy chokepoints, where shipping has already been constrained by security risks and concerns about potential mines.

Separately, Oman is dealing with a salvage operation involving a tanker grounded off the country's coast near the Hallaniyat Islands in Dhofar Governorate.

UK-based maritime risk and response firm Ambrey said Thursday it has been hired to salvage a grounded Russian shadow fleet tanker off Oman's coast and contain an oil spill and prevent further leakage that threatens wildlife.

Related Articles

Oil & Energy

US Oil Update: Crude Little Changed as Markets Weigh US-Iran Talks, Weak Demand

Crude futures were little changed in after-hours trading on Wednesday as markets weighed downward revisions to global demand forecasts against persistent supply risks amid the US-Iran talks impasse and ongoing maritime security risks.Front-month West Texas Intermediate crude futures slipped by 0.75% to $82.58 per barrel, while Brent futures eased by 0.48% to $88.48/bbl.Gelber & Associates strategists said that a reported build in US crude inventories is limiting the upside, although declines in gasoline and distillate stocks point to firmer demand for refined products.US commercial crude oil inventories increased by 17.4 million barrels to 424.4 mmbbls in the week ended Aug. 7, the Energy Information Administration said in its weekly report on Wednesday.Crude inventories were about 2% below the five-year average for this time of year, the EIA said. The larger-than-expected build is above Investing.com's estimate of a 1.7-mmbbl draw for the week.RBC Capital Markets strategists said crude prices have been whipsawed by both sentiment around the Iran conflict and the reality on the water, noting that the headline-driven uncertainty has shifted market participation and price outcome.On the supply front, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries on Wednesday slashed its global oil demand growth forecasts for the fourth straight month for 2026, projecting demand to grow by 600,000 barrels per day over the year.The reduction is 200,000 b/d less than its July forecast of 800,000 b/d, already down from 1 million b/d in June, 1.2 mmbbl/d in May, and 1.4 mmbbl/d in April.On Wednesday, the International Energy Agency also forecasted global demand to contract in 2026 by 1.6 million b/d, steeper than the about 1 million b/d drop seen last month.The IEA said that global demand outlook is forecast to decline 510,000 b/d more than the agency's July estimate as the ongoing closure of the Strait of Hormuz and elevated fuel prices continue to weigh on oil consumption.Meanwhile, President Trump said on Wednesday the US has "total control" of the Hormuz and expects to maintain control as Pakistan, the mediator between the two countries, reportedly said the deadline for a memorandum of understanding between Washington and Tehran could be extended."The USA has total control over the Strait of Hormuz. I think we will keep it! Our naval blockade is being called, by everyone, 'a wall of steel', and there is nothing Iran can do about it," Trump said in a Truth Social post.Tensions around the Middle East energy chokepoints remain elevated on Aug. 11, though the number of confirmed crossings increased, with Hormuz recording 14 crossings, up 16.7% day on day, while Bab el-Mandeb traffic rose 14.3% to 40 crossings.

Oil & Energy

Hormuz, Bab el-Mandeb Traffic Edge Up as Security Risks Keep Shipping on Edge

Commercial vessel traffic through the Strait of Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb increased slightly on Tuesday, but a rise in vessel movements has done little to signal a return to normal shipping conditions as security risks persist.The latest data from MarineTraffic show that 14 vessels crossed Hormuz on Tuesday, up 16.7% from 12 on Monday.The latest daily set included 2 sanctioned vessels and 3 shadow fleet vessels, MarineTraffic said.A total of 11 vessels of the 14 on Tuesday used the Iranian unilateral transit scheme and none used the traditional traffic separation scheme. The remaining three were "route undetermined."Traffic via Bab el-Mandeb rose to 40 crossings on Tuesday, up 14.3% from 35 on Monday, the maritime analytics firm said. This included vessels associated with dark, sanctioned and shadow fleets.The increase comes despite continued warnings over attacks and the risks associated with transiting the southern Red Sea.The higher traffic volumes suggest that commercial shipping has not stopped entirely, but Kpler said the two strategic waterways remained "active but fragile," with routing constraints, security incidents and diplomatic tensions continuing to affect voyage decisions.The Hormuz, through which 20% of the world's oil and gas trade traditionally passes, remains particularly constrained.Iran's Persian Gulf Strait Authority has rejected claims by US officials that the Strait is no longer blocked, saying the strategic waterway will not be reopened until Tehran's conditions are accepted.The US military has also continued enforcing its blockade of Iranian ports. The US Central Command said that US forces had redirected 59 commercial vessels, disabled three and boarded two as of Aug. 12 to ensure compliance with the blockade.On Tuesday, the UKMTO said activity by Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, including hailing, drone overflights and targeted surveillance of merchant shipping, continued despite a lack of confirmed reports of attacks in the strait itself.The maritime security agency reported two new attacks on ships in the Gulf of Oman and the Red Sea, highlighting the widening threat to maritime trade.Commercial traffic through the Hormuz remained suppressed, with independent tracking data showing single-digit numbers of tankers moving in each direction.UKMTO also warned of the continued risk from drifting or uncharted mines in and around the traffic separation scheme.Meanwhile, the International Maritime Organization's daily Strait of Hormuz incident tracker showed the total number of confirmed maritime security incidents in the region to be 65 as of Tuesday.The IMO tracker provides a daily log of verified strikes on ships attempting to transit the Strait of Hormuz since the conflict began, with the earliest incident recorded on March 1.

Oil & Energy

Market Chatter: HPCL, MRPL Seek Up to 6 Million Barrels of Crude via Tenders

India's state-backed refiners Hindustan Petroleum and Mangalore Refinery and Petrochemicals are seeking up to a combined six million barrels of crude through spot tenders, Reuters reported on Wednesday, citing a tender document.HPCL is looking to import up to four million barrels for delivery in September and October, while MRPL is seeking as many as two million barrels for delivery between Oct. 10 and 20, the report said.MRPL has instructed suppliers to avoid routing shipments through the Red Sea and the Strait of Hormuz. Traffic through the energy chokepoints remained subdued this week amid ongoing Middle East conflict.Hindustan Petroleum and Mangalore Refinery did not immediately respond to' request for comment.(Market Chatter news is derived from conversations with market professionals globally. This information is believed to be from reliable sources but may include rumor and speculation. Accuracy is not guaranteed.)