Oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz have recovered to about 2 million barrels per day as more tankers use untracked voyages to move Gulf crude, according to a Bloomberg analysis on Wednesday.
A total of 16 tankers gathered off the coast of Oman over the weekend to transfer millions of barrels of oil that had been stuck inside the Persian Gulf, according to satellite imagery cited in the analysis.
To move more cargoes through Hormuz, a growing number of vessels have stopped broadcasting location signals during transit, allowing exports to rise even though conventional tracking data shows limited changes.
Untracked tanker movements and US support for vessel transit have boosted oil flows through Hormuz, helping keep global supplies moving and limiting price pressures despite the Iran conflict, the analysis said.
Rather than paying elevated freight rates, producers have increasingly relied on government-controlled vessels to carry crude beyond Hormuz before transferring cargoes onto export tankers bound for Asia and other destinations.
Several voyages have taken place after dark with navigation lights switched off, while crews avoided radio communications during crossings, according to people familiar with the operations.
Although exports remain below normal levels, Rapidan Energy estimates current flows at roughly 2 million b/d, a significant improvement from conditions earlier in the conflict.
Oil prices have fallen nearly 30% from wartime highs as stronger Gulf exports, weaker Chinese demand, rising US shipments and alternative pipeline routes eased concerns over supply shortages, the analysis said.
Satellite data from the European Union's Copernicus program showed ship-to-ship transfers off Oman, while TankerTrackers.com identified 12 vessels carrying non-Iranian Middle Eastern crude outside Hormuz on June 6 alone.
TankerTrackers.com said the cargoes originated from Iran's Arab neighbors and contributed to preventing crude prices from reaching $200 per barrel despite the disruption, according to the analysis.
Growing exports through Hormuz have also drawn attention from US officials. President Donald Trump said "lots of oil is getting out" of the waterway, while Energy Secretary Chris Wright reported a meaningful increase in tanker traffic.
Fresh crude offers from Kuwait and the UAE suggest more barrels are successfully clearing the chokepoint, while Asian buyers expect additional cargoes to emerge in the coming days and weeks, according to traders.
Late last month, two Kuwait Oil Tanker Company-owned vessels capable of carrying 2 million barrels each crossed Hormuz, while the number of non-Iranian large tankers stranded in the Gulf declined to about 90 from roughly 160 in early April, the analysis said, citing Equasis maritime database.
Adnoc secured buyers for at least 14 million barrels in a tender completed late last week, with the cargoes scheduled to begin loading during June, according to the analysis.
Adnoc has continued moving crude across Hormuz at a steady pace in recent weeks and is among the companies that have used vessels with disabled transponders while crossing the strait, the analysis added, citing two people familiar with the matter.
Tankers continued loading crude at Zirku Island during May, with satellite imagery showing loading activity on six of the eight days for which images were available, the analysis said, citing Copernicus data.
The number of non-Iranian large tankers stranded inside the Persian Gulf has fallen to about 90 from roughly 160 in early April, indicating that more vessels are successfully exiting the region, according to Signal Maritime analyst Georgios Sakellariou.