The expansion of biofuel production amid tightening Gulf oil supplies during the US-Iran war risks intensifying competition for land and food crops over the next four years, a Chatham House study found on Tuesday.
The global policy institute's study showed that an extra 36 million hectares of land, an area the size of Germany, could come under pressure globally as governments expand fuel-blending mandates.
Brazil, China, the EU, India, Indonesia, the US and others have all recently proposed new, higher "blending mandates" for biofuels, national regulations that require fuel suppliers to mix a minimum percentage of biofuels, such as ethanol or biodiesel, with conventional petroleum-based fuels.
Under these policies, global biofuel production is expected to rise from around 105 million metric tons of oil equivalent in 2025 to 176 mtoe in 2030, a 68% increase.
The study indicated that policymakers must therefore treat biofuels as a targeted transitional measure to help bridge the current oil crisis, rather than a permanent solution to energy security.